The economic forecasting group Ernst and Young Item Club has reported today that not only are we officially out of recession, but that the next decade is likely to see a period of slow growth which will see a period of adjustment. They report that there will be a greater reliance on the world economy, with especial regard to the rate of growth in the Export sector as the worlds economy expands levels of trade by an estimated 23% over the next three years.
The pound not being prevented from adjusting, as is an economy tied into the eurozone, will undoubtedly assist the prospect of exports by helping to make our exchange rate more internationally competitive.
Official figures to be published on January 26 are widely expected to show that Britain finally emerged from recession in the final three months of 2009, the last major economy to do so.
The outlook however is for possibly only GDP growth of 1% in 2010, with 2.5% in 2011 and 3% in 2012.
The report also casts aspursions on the budgetary figures provided by the Chancellor.
To read the full report click here .
The ITEM club or Independent Treasury Economic Model is an economic forecasting group based in the United Kingdom. It produces quarterly forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media. It was founded in 1977 and is sponsored by Ernst & Young a leading firm of business and financial advisers. Founded in 1977, ITEM is said to be independent of any political, academic or commercial bias. Its independence is underpinned by the untied sponsorship of Ernst & Young.
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Editor 18th January, 2010