The economic forecasting group Ernst and Young Item Club has reported today that not only are we officially out of recession, but that the next decade is likely to see a period of slow growth which will see a period of adjustment. They report that there will be a greater reliance on the world economy, with especial regard to the rate of growth in the Export sector as the worlds economy expands levels of trade by an estimated 23% over the next three years.
The pound not being prevented from adjusting, as is an economy tied into the eurozone, will undoubtedly assist the prospect of exports by helping to make our exchange rate more internationally competitive.
Official figures to be published on January 26 are widely expected to show that Britain finally emerged from recession in the final three months of 2009, the last major economy to do so.
The outlook however is for possibly only GDP growth of 1% in 2010, with 2.5% in 2011 and 3% in 2012.
The report also casts aspursions on the budgetary figures provided by the Chancellor.
To read the full report click here .
The ITEM club or Independent Treasury Economic Model is an economic forecasting group based in the United Kingdom. It produces quarterly forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media. It was founded in 1977 and is sponsored by Ernst & Young a leading firm of business and financial advisers. Founded in 1977, ITEM is said to be independent of any political, academic or commercial bias. Its independence is underpinned by the untied sponsorship of Ernst & Young.
To read more articles on News Items click here .
Editor 18th January, 2010
Market conditions in both the UK and North America during 2009 were better than
those experienced during 2008, although they still remained challenging reports large scale developers, Taylor Wimpey Plc. in their Trading Statement released today.
They report that their UK business has maintained its encouraging performance since their Interim Management Statement in November and that they enter 2010 with a “very strong order book position”.
Taylor Wimpey are active in the land market and approved new land purchase commitments for
3,003 plots at 22 new sites during the second half of 2009.
The numbers of properties being completed and released to the market was down on 2008 but this is unsurprising due to the timelag between the strategic decision making process, and a site being built out or completed following development.
Sale prices of new homes has increased on average from £153,000 to £160,000, the company reports. The overall debt within the group was reduced by greater than 50 % to £750 million in line with expectations to the year end 31st December, 2009.
Taylor Wimpey plc builds homes in the UK, North America, Spain and Gibraltar.
Editor 18th January, 2010
Barratt Developments chief executive has stated that the off plan purchasing of new properties is again on the rise. This is most predominant in London and the South East.
Barratt Developments, Britains biggest New Home developer issued a formal “Trading update”. It noted that the company ghas been buying land again since mid 2009 and that the number of reservations of new homes was up as well as an average increase in achieved prices of 4%. (This can of course be partly due to a change in the mix of units that has come on line.)
It will be interesting if this activity is reflected in the announcements of Britains other major house builders over the coming weeks.
To connect to a Local Chartered Surveyor for advice on a new or older build property, click here.
15th January, 2010
Historically, the stockmarket has always shown a good spurt of growth between 6 months and 24 months before the majority of the UK economy and the Housing Market moves forward once again. The financial markets have been moving generally upwards since January 2009. To read more click here.
The Marine and Coastal Access Act places a duty on the Secretary of State to make, where such access does not already exist, a continuous route open to the public next to the coast all the way around the coast of England and Wales. This could have big implications on a few properties next to our coast. To read the full article, click here.
Yet again the Land Registry has reported that during November the prices of Houses in England and Wales have increased.
This was the sixth month in a row that has seen an increase. It reports that the increase was a month on month rise of 0.9%. This has to be factored into the annual position where house prices have fallen over the whole year to the end of November but now have fallen by only -0.3%. It may be very soon that we will be able to report an average increase.
The rate of change throughout the country is vastly different from location to location. To discuss how matters have changed in any individual location contact your local independent chartered surveyor here.
Housing Federations hope a greater amount Glebe lands will be released.
The National Housing Federation hopes that their research into the rural housing shortage will inspire the release of Glebe Lands by the Church of England.
The Church of England owns in the region of 129,000 acres and if just a small portion of the land held in rural villages up and down the country was released for development to housing associations, as much as 10% of the housing shortage could be alleviated according to the NHF’s research.
If the land was sold on the open market with a prospect of normal development, these lands would, however, be that much more valuable to the church and provide a greater level of funds to maintain and improve the historic buildings in their control. This land is often situated close to the centre of villages and these could often be considered to be prime locations for developers. Much of this land also comprises graveyards or land earmarked for graveyard expansion.
Every village and location has different considerations and the Local Church Diocese has individual requirements and land resources to manage. Should individual development locations need consideration, such as development proposals or valuations, we recomend consulting your local independent Chartered Surveyor with www.propertysurveying.co.uk
We understand from reports from the British Bankers Association Data that the number of new home loans are substantially up in November 2009. They have reached the levels of Autumn 2007, just after the peak of the housing market in terms of prices.
These figures are double those of the similar month in 2008 when the housing market was at a very low ebb.
Loans for equity withdrawal were notably lower as were remortgaging loans issued. The BBA said that “Household priorities were showing up in the November figures”, suggesting that households were paying off debt and saving more.
The way that this affects Individual locations within the wider market is varied and independent advice should be obtained with the housing market as with any market. Consult a local Independent Chartered Surveyor by sourcing a contact through the propertysurveying network.
Plymouth is one of the successful bidders and has made it onto the 2018 World Cup list of host football stadiums. Home Park, the home of Plymouth Argyle will be further modernised and upgraded and improve the immediate area. For property appraisals near the Home Park area contact the local Independent Chartered Surveyor, Graham Cocking at http://www.plymouthbuildingsurveyors.co.uk/ .
To discuss how this may affect the market in the wider Devon and Cornwall area, contact your local Independent Property Expert by calling your local propertysurveying.co.uk Independent Chartered Surveyor or go to the Devon or Cornwall Network pages.
The latest press announcements by the Bank of England and the RICS suggest that House prices in England and Wales are generally continuing to rise in certain areas often fuelled by a lack of supply. The local Independent Chartered Surveyors with www.propertysurveying.co.uk report a varied market with London bolstored by both big bonuses from the city as well as foreign net investment. Our surveyors indicate a difference in demand in locations around the provinces whereas in London , the network surveyors demand is still strong with some agents very busy. A consistent demand has been reported by the westcountry contingent, and along the south coast. Enquiries are coming in for along the south coast in Hampshire and in Sussex .
In the deep west, Cornwall and Devon are benefitting from consistent demand with Dorset and Somerset also reporting a healthy number of transactions taking place helped by the net migration to the area.
In the Gloucestershire and Welsh Border Country, enquiries are in less depth but a number of transactions are taking place with demand good in places like Ross on Wye, Stratford upon Avon, and parts of the Birmingham and West Midlands connurbation such as Wolverhampton and Telford .
Soundings from other surveyors of our network of Independent Chartered Surveyors will be placed here over the next few days.