Property Market Monthly Fact File – September 2014

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for over five years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price ranges from 176k (Land Registry) to 271k (Acadata),
with varying movements in prices across the indices.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to June 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 19th August 2014, show that house prices increased by 10.2% over the year, to an average of £265k.  This is a 0.5% increase over the month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 6.3% to £201k.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in June was £204k. Over the year, this is an increase of 12.0%. Existing owners paid an average of £304k in June, an increase of 9.5% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £243k in June, which is an increase of 3.9% from last June. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £266k, which is 10.7% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales was £175,653 at the end of July 2014, according to the report published on 29th August 2014.
The Monthly change in July was a rise of 1.7%.
The Annual change to end of July was a rise of 7.2%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of July 2014 was £186,322, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 6th August 2014. House prices in July were 1.4% higher than in June, and the quarterly figure was up by 3.6%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 10.2% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 29th August 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £189,306 during the month of August. This is an increase from July of 0.8% after seasonal adjustment, and an annual rise of 11.0%. This is the sixteenth consecutive month in which Nationwide has seen a rise in house prices.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s August survey (published 18th August 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 13th July to 9th August 2014 was £262,401, a drop of 2.9% on the previous month. House asking prices are 5.3% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata July figures, published 8th August 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £270,636 in the month. This is a 0.6% increase from June, but a 9.9% rise since last July. Excluding London and the South East, the annual rise was 4.6%.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the July 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in July is then £174,921: a 1.8% rise from June and 7.7% up on July 2013.
In the quarter from February to May ’14, the number of repossessions averaged 966 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,430 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to May 2014 of 42% – 1,488 to 857. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the East Midlands had 57% fewer repossession sales compared to last May, whereas Wales had 18% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY.
Greater London and the South East consistently out-perform other regions in England and Wales

ONS House Price Index figures by country.
The average house price in England in June 2014 was £276k, £166k in Wales, £137k in Northern Ireland and £193k in Scotland.
Over the year to June 2014, England’s average house price rise was 10.7%, Scotland’s was 6.0% and Wales’ was 3.5%. Northern Ireland’s prices rose by 4.9%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 19.3% over the year to an average of £499k, while the smallest rise was 4.4% in the North East to an average of £150k.
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s July survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 13th July to 9th August 2014 was £262,401.
The only monthly increase was in the North, where asking prices rose by 0.5% over the period from £148,572 to £149,354. The annual change there was a fall of only £8 – statistically totally insignificant.
The largest monthly decrease was in Greater London, where average prices fell by 5.9% from £587,174 to £552,783. The annual change here was a rise of 10.3% (the largest annual rise).
The second largest annual rise was 5.3% in the South West, where prices have risen from £260,605 last Augus to £274,307 this August.
None of the regions saw an annual fall, although the change is the North was zero (see above).
Source: Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s July survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in London, which saw an increase over the month of 3.3%, bringing the average house price in the capital to £457,072. This is 19.3%  higher than this time last year – the largest annual increase.
The largest monthly decrease in price was once again in Yorkshire & Humberside, where the average price fell 0.6% to £118,835, which is 3.1% higher than a year ago.
No regions had a drop in prices over the year, but the smallest annual increase was in the North East which saw a rise of 2.0% over the year to £100,834 – a 0.5% drop on last month.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that for the year to June 2014, all of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices. However, in the month, only London, the South East and the East Midlands saw a rise. Prices in the North West stayed the same.
Figures for England and Wales overall show an average house price in June of £269,012, which is a 0.6% increase over the month and an 9.7% increase over the year.
The largest rise in the month was in Greater London – up 2.0% to an average of £560,386.  The annual rise here was 19.0% – the largest annual rise. (See below paragraph for analysis by borough.)
The West Midlands saw the largest drop in the month – down 0.4% to £182,713. However, this is 4.5% higher than last year.
Annually, as mentioned, London saw the highest rise, and the second highest was the South East – up 8.4% to an average of £309,831 which is 0.3% higher than last month.
No region experienced a fall over the year, but the smallest rise was in Yorkshire & Humberside, where prices rose by 3.2% to £162,431. The monthly change here was a fall of 0.3%.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s July survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is once again in Merthyr Tydfil, where the average price is up by 4.3% to £66,122. However, this is 4.5% lower than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was 3.5% in the Isle of Anglesey, where the average price is £128,300, which is 3.9% higher than last year.
As mentioned above, Greater London saw the largest annual price rise (19.3% to an average of  £457,072).
The largest annual fall was once again in Blackburn with Darwen, where prices fell by 7.6% to £67,617. This is 0.4% lower than June.
Of the 101 counties/unitary authorities defined, 39 saw movement of only ½ a percent or less with only four of them seeing zero price movement in the month. Denbighshire is the only one to have the average house price stay the same as last year, although Swansea, Cumbria, Neath Port Talbot and Stoke on Trent all saw changes of less than ½ a percent in the year.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in June 2014 was the Isle of Anglesey, where average prices rose by 4.8% to an average of £170,457. The annual change there was a rise of 11.6%. The next largest monthly increase was in Monmouthshire, where prices rose by 2.8% to £237,114, and the annual rise was 8.9%.
Poole saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 3.0% to £313,557. The annual change there was a rise of 20.0%, the largest annual rise. Following closely, Carmarthenshire and Northumberland both saw falls of 2.8% in the month. Their annual changes were a fall of 0.1% (to £128,190) and a rise of 5.9% (to £178,859) respectively.
As mentioned already, Poole has seen the largest annual increase –  but Brighton & Hove were not far behind with an 18.8% increase over the year. The monthly change here was a rise of 0.7% to an average of £342,037.
The largest annual decrease was yet again in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 7.3% to £96,054. This is 1.6% lower than last month.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s July survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase was in Bury, where the average prices were up by 2.6% to £112,517. This is 6.0% higher  than last year.
The largest fall in the month was in Salford –  average prices fell by 1.3% to £93,151. This is 8.0% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise is in Oldham yet again, where prices rose by 12.0% to an average of £85,934. However, this is up just 1.5% from last month.
The greatest annual decrease in price was yet again in St Helens, where prices fell by 1.7% to an average of £92,689. This is 0.1% lower than last month.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period 13th July to 9th August 2014, there were no increases in asking prices
The smallest decrease was in Bexley, where they fell by 1.9% to an average of £261,943. The annual change was a rise of 17.2%.
The largest decrease in asking prices was once again in Wandsworth, where they fell by 8.4% in the month to £785,775. However, they rose by 12.0% over the year.
Annually, the largest increase was yet again in Tower Hamlets, where prices rose by 32.0% over the year, to an average of £606,403. The monthly change here was a fall of  2.3%.
The only annual fall was in Kensington & Chelsea, where prices fell by 1.4% over the year, and by 7.0% last month.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to June 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 2.0% to £560,386. Over the year, the change is a 19.0% rise.
The City of Westminster once again had the largest monthly rise: up 6.2% to an average of £1,452,993.  The annual change here was a rise of 15.1%.
Next in line, the City of London prices rose by 5.0% in the month to £859,103, and the annual rise was 13.5%.
Lambeth saw the largest decrease this month – down 2.4% to £584,703. However, this is 38.5% higher than last year, which is the highest annual rise. (The report says Lambeth has seen a large jump in prices due to the sale of some up-market waterfront flats on a new development.)
Lambeth had the highest annual increase (see above), followed by Kensington & Chelsea’s 32.0% to £1,993,068 keeping it  the most expensive London borough to buy property, even though the monthly rise was only 2.9%.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £207,368, although this is a rise of 0.3% since last month, and of 11.4% since last year.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s July survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Islington –  the borough saw a rise of 3.5% in the month. The average price is now £645,272, which is 20.4% higher than last year.
Hackney saw the average house price fall 0.9% from last month to £563,928. This was the only borough to see a decrease over the month.
The biggest annual rise was yet again in Waltham Forest, where prices rose by 29.3% to £342,294, which is 2.5% higher than last month.
Harrow saw the smallest annual rise of 9.3%, to £340,982. This borough saw a monthly rise of 0.6%.
Source: Land Registry

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for July 2014 (published 14th August 2014) says that “while the national picture appears to be broadly resilient, the London indicators are going into reverse.” and that “the pace of activity may be shifting down a gear at the national level“.
This month, East Anglia saw the largest price rises over the month, whilst London saw the smallest.
Scotland had the highest level of agreed sales in July, with every area seeing a rise except for London and the South East.
The North of England had – by a large margin – the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month whereas London and the East Midlands saw a drop in numbers.
The highest level of new vendor instructions was in the North. Other regions which saw a rise were Wales, London and Yorkshire & Humberside. The North West saw the largest decrease in the month, followed closely by East Midlands.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising over the long-term, but flats and maisonettes are consistently rising faster than other types of property..

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 9th August 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 5.3%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are priced higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 9.9% to £230,465.
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 9.6% to £206,606.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 4.9% to £382,622.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 7.9% to £220,622.

However, all types have fallen since last month, by 2.1%, 1.4%, 3.8% and 1.3% respectively.
Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s July average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 7.2% in the year to the end of July 2014. The average price is now £175,653.

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 9.2% to £169,291
  • Terraced properties rose by 7.0% to £132,723
  • Detached properties rose by 6.3% to £274,543
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 6.7% to £165,515.

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

New Mortgages granted – June Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 60,500 loans were made in June for house purchase, worth £10.0 billion. This is higher than May’s in number by 5.4% and in value by 6.4%. However, these figures are up 14.6% and 23.5% (respectively) than last June’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 28,600, valued at £4.2 billion, which is up by 7.1% in number and 10.5% in value on last month. This is 18.7% higher in number and 27.3% higher in value, compared to last June’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £5.9 billion, and numbered 31,900. These figures are up 4.2% in terms of number, and 5.4% in value on last month, and are up 11.1% in number and 22.9% in value on last June.
The number and value of remortgage loans rose in the month – 23,600 loans worth £3.7 billion were made in June. These figures are 1.3% higher than last month’s in terms of volume and up 5.7% in value. Over the year, these figures are down by 8.2% in number but up 5.7% in value.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – July Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reported on 20th August that July’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK would be £19.1 billion. This is 7% higher than last month’s figure, and a rise of 15% on last July’s £19.3 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – Q2 2014 Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that in the second quarter of 2014, gross lending for house purchase totalled £51.4 billion, which is up by 11% on the first quarter, and by 23% on the second quarter last year.
79,900 loans were made to first-time buyers, worth £11.5 billion. This is 17% higher than Q1’s in number and 12% higher in value. These figures are up 24% and 34% (respectively) than Q2 2013.
Home movers’ loans totalled £11.3 billion, and numbered 91,000. These figures are up 16% in terms of number, and 19% in value on Q1, and are up 15% in number and 27% in value on Q2 last year.
The number of remortgage loans fell in the quarter to 74,600, down 5% on Q1, and down 8% on Q2 2013. In terms of value, the total is £11.3 billion, which is lower by 2% than last quarter but up 5% on the same quarter last year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Regional analysis of first-time buyers’ mortgages in Q2 2014
The lastest figures from CML show that the number of loans to first-time buyers in Q2 is increasing throughout the UK.
In Greater London, there were 12,300 first-time buyer loans (worth £3 billion) made in Q2. This is 4% higher than Q1 and 17% higher than Q2 2013. London’s first-time buyers borrowed 3.9 times gross income (whereas the UK average is 3.46 times), and the typical loan size was £212k. 21.1% of their gross income goes towards capital and interest payments.
In Northern Ireland, the number of loans to first-time buyers totalled 1,800 (worth £150 million) – 13% higher than Q1 and 29% higher than Q2 last year. First-time buyers here borrow 2.9 times gross income, typically borrowing £78k. These buyers spend 17.7% of their gross income on capital and interest repayments.
Scottish first-time buyers spend 16.7% on capital and interest, typically using 2.98 times gross income to secure the £95k loan. There were 7,500 loans in Q2 worth £790 million – up 29% on Q1 and up 23% on Q2 2013.
Welsh first-time buyers’ loans are typically £99k – 3.23 times gross income. They spend 18.2% of gross income on capital and interest payments. There were 3,300 first-time buyer loans in Wales in Q2, up 32% on Q1 and uo 27% on Q2 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during June 2014, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.2 billion (15,600 loans). This is much the same as May’s in number and slightly higher than May’s £2.1 billion.
47% of the buy-to-let loans were for remortgage: 7,250 loans worth £1.1 billion – an increase of 1% in number, and 3% in value on the previous month. Compared to last June, the figures are up 23% in number and 31% in value.
Buy-to-Let loans for house purchase totalled 8,200 worth £1.0 billion, a drop of 1% in number and the same in value on last month, and a rise of 24% in number and 37% in value on June 2013.
In the second quarter of 2014, loans totalled 46,200, which is 1% higher than Q1, and 22% higher than Q2 2013. In value, the figures are £6.3 billion – 3% higher than Q1 and 31% higher than Q2 last year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Mortgage Arrears and Homes Repossessions
The number of UK mortgages in arrears has again fallen slightly – it now stands at 1.18% of all mortgages.
During Q2 2014, 131,400 mortgages were in arrears, i.e. behind by more than 2.5% of the mortgage balance. These are the lowest figures since Q1 2008. By comparison, 1.38% of mortgages (154,900) were in arrears a year ago.
The number of repossessions in Q2 2014 was 5,400, down from 6,400 in Q1 and 7,600 in Q2 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.2m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £115,328 in June 2014.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.288 trillion at the end of June 2014. This is up from the previous June’s £1,269 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER INFORMATION

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s July Report, in May 2014, 72,900 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 8,915 in London. This represents a rise of 10% in England & Wales, and a drop of 1% in London since last May’s figures, (66,325 and 9,009 respectively).
Compared to last May, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 533 to 732 – a rise of 37%, and in England & Wales it increased from 779 to 1,032 – a rise of 32%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 6% in England & Wales (from 48,934 last May to 51,918 this May), but it fell by 25% in London (from 3,192 to 2,385 in the same period).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from February to May 2014 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 68,448. This is up 26.0% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 54,334 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
Hometrack compile sample data monthly from thousands of Estate Agents in all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales. The figures are weighted according to postcode, but not seasonally adjusted.
August’s survey (published 29th August 2014) shows that house prices increased by only 0.1% in the month for the second consecutive month..
The average amount of time that a house is on the market has crept up 0.3 weeks to 6.3 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 4.1 weeks in the South East to 10.4 weeks in the North East.
On average, 95.9% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 96.9% in the South East, down to 94.6% in the North West.
19.3% of postcode districts reported a price increase in August, a steady fall from July’s 23.7% and June’s 31.7% The number of postcodes reporting a decrease is 4.2%, compared to 1.5% last month and 1.6% the previous month.
Source: Hometrack

Analysis of Housing Transactions
In Q2 2013 there were 170,541 housing transactions in England and Wales. In Q2 2014, there were 218,371 – a rise of 28.0%. Regionally, the North West saw the largest rise – up 32.3% to 22,458. Greater London saw the smallest increase – up 20.2% to 28,221. This is possibly due to the twin issues of affordability and availability of properties.
Analysed by property type, the volume of transaction involving flats has increased by 36.3% between Q2 2013 and Q2 2014 (from 31,323 to 42,708), whereas the increase in volume of semi-detached properties rose by 23.1%. The other property types – detached and terraced – were at (or just under) the average 28.0%. The report links this to the increase in first-time buyers using the Help-to-Buy scheme, and more buy-to-let landlords. It also observed that in London, the rise in the number of semi’s sold was only 5%.
Source: Acadata Ltd

NHBC Figures for new homes
On 1st August, NHBC released figures for new homes registered for June and the second quarter of 2014.
36,858 new homes have been registered in the quarter, compared to 35,683 in the same period last year – a 3% rise. This rise is because of the Private Sector’s 9% rise, all but cancelled out by the Public Sector’s 11% drop.
June’s figure was up 14% on last June – up to 11,726 from 10,285.
Source: NHBC

NHBC Figures for new homes in Q2 2014
The registration figures are 27,527 in the private sector, and 9,331 public sector: an increase of 9% and a decrease of 11% respectively on the same period last year (25,209 and 10,474 respectively).
Regional analysis shows that – statistically – the Isle of Man saw the largest fall in registrations in this period (compared with a year ago) of 88% (from 25 to 3). The next region is Northern Ireland, which saw a fall of 16% (from 623 to 529). Scotland saw a fall of 12% (from 2,611 to 2,290), Wales stayed exactly the same (848 registrations) but England saw an overall rise of 5% from 31,576 to 33,178.
Within England, the largest increase was the South East, where registrations increased by 48% from 4,355 last year to 6,434 this year. Next highest was East Midlands (38% increase from 2,693 to 3,708).
The North East and North West saw the greatest falls in registrations – down 19% and 17% respectively in this period.
Source: NHBC

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in October 2014.

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