Property Market Monthly Fact File – July 2014

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for over five years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price ranges from 172k (Land Registry) to 272k (Rightmove).

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to April 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 17th June 2014, show that house prices increased by 9.9% over the year, to an average of £260k.  This is a 2.0% increase over the month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 6.3% to £199k.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in April was £199k. Over the year, this is an increase of 10.7%. Existing owners paid an average of £299k in April, an increase of 9.5% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £241k in April, which is an increase of 2.0% from last April. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £261k, which is 10.4% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £172,035 as at the end of May 2014, according to the report published on 27th June 2014.
The Monthly change in May in England and Wales was a 0.4% rise.
The Annual change to end of May in England and Wales was a rise of 6.7%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of May 2014 was £184,464, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 5th June 2014. House prices in May were 3.9% higher than in April, and the quarterly figure was up by 8.7%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 8.7% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 2nd July 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £188,903 during the month of June. This is an increase from May of 1.0%, and an annual rise of 11.8%. This is the fourteenth consecutive month which has seen a rise in house prices.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s June survey (published 16th June 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 11th May to 8th June 2014 was £272,275, a rise of 0.1% on the previous month. House asking prices are 7.7% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata May figures, published 13th June 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £266,013 in the month. This is a 0.9% increase from April, but a 8.5% rise since last May.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the May 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in May is then £171,077: 0.4% up on April and 7.3% up on May 2013.
In the quarter from December ’13 to March ’14, the number of repossessions averaged 1,011 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,412 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to March 2014 of 37% – 1,560 to 987. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the East Midlands had 55% fewer repossession sales compared to last March, whereas Wales had 23% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY.
Greater London and the South East consistently out-perform other regions.

ONS House Price Index regional figures.
The average house price in England in April 2014 was £271k, £166k in Wales, £132k in Northern Ireland and £187k in Scotland.
Over the year to April 2014, England’s rise was 10.4% and Wales’ by 3.3%. Northern Ireland’s rose by 2.6% and Scotland’s rose by 4.8%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 18.7% over the year to an average of £485k,while the smallest rises were 5.5% in the North West (to an average of £152k) and the South West (to an average of £238k)..
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s June survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 11th May to 8th June 2014 was £272,275
The largest monthly increase was in East Anglia, where asking prices rose by 2.8% over the period from £242,761 to £249,483. The annual change there was a rise of 7.7% – the second largest monthly increase.
The largest monthly decrease was in the North West where average prices fell by 1.8%, from £172,275 to £169,253. The annual change there was a rise of 0.7%.
The largest annual rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 14.5% over the year from £515,243 to an average of £589,776. The monthly change was a decrease of 0.5%.
The only annual fall is in the North, where prices fell by 0.5% over the year, from £152,241 to £151,496. The monthly change was a drop of 0.8%.
Source: Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s May survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in London, which saw an increase over the month of 2.5%, bringing the average house price in the region to £439,719. This is 18.5%  higher than this time last year – the largest annual increase by far.
The largest monthly decrease in price was in Yorkshire & Humberside, where the average price fell 0.9% to £119,472, which is 2.9% higher than a year ago.
The smallest annual increase was in the North East which saw a rise of 0.9% over the year to £99,319 – a 0.3% drop on last month..
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that for the year to April 2014, all of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices. In the month, four regions showed a decrease.
Figures for England and Wales overall show an average house price in April of £263,687, which is  a 0.4% increase over month and a 7.5% increase over the year.
The largest rise in the month was East Anglia – up 1.0% to an average of £216,099.  The annual rise here was 4.5%.
The East Midlands  and Wales both saw the largest fall in the month – down 0.3% to £172,379 and £158,490 respectively. However, these are 5.3% and 3.2% higher than last year.
Annually, the largest rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 13.3% over the year, but only 0.2% in the month.
The smallest annual rise was shared by the North West and Yorkshire & Humberside, where prices increased by 3.1% over the year, to an average of £159,972 and £161,712 respectively. The monthly change was a 0.1% drop in both regions.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s May survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Ceredigion, where the average price is up by 5.9% to £157,416. This is 3.5% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was in Wrexham, where prices fell by 2.3% to an average of £116,715, which is 0.8% lower than last year.
Annually, for the fourth month in a row, Greater London saw the largest annual price rise (18.5% to an average of  £439,719).
The largest annual fall was in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 13.2% to £60,031. However, this is 0.6% higher than April.
No counties / authorities saw zero price movement in the month, and the average house price in Rhondda Cynon Taff is the same as last year.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authorities with the largest increase in house prices in April 2014 were Poole and Middlesbrough, where average prices rose by 3.6% to £329,058 and £124,543 respectively. The annual changes there were a rise of 22.7% and 4.5%. Poole saw the largest annual rise by some margin.
Carmarthenshire saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 3.4% to £136,166. The annual change was a fall of 3.1%.
As mentioned above, over the past year, Poole (once again) saw the largest increase.
The largest annual decrease was yet again in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 8.1% to £100,843. However, this is 0.8% higher than last month.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s May survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase was in South Tyneside, where the average prices were up by 3.0% to £100,692. This is 1.2% higher  than last year.
The largest fall in the month was in Gateshead –  average prices fell by 1.4% to £96,405. This is 3.5% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise is once again in Oldham, where prices rose by 9.3% to an average of £82,202. However, this is 0.8% lower than last month. Next highest were Salford (a rise of 9.0%) and Stockport (8.3%).
The greatest annual decrease in price was in Knowsley, where prices fell by 2.6% to an average of £99,474. This is 0.8% lower than last month.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period 11th May to 8th June 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in Westminster, where they rose by 3.5% to an average of £1,706,823. The annual rise was 1.2% – the smallest annual change.
The largest decrease in asking prices was in Haringey, where they fell by 4.8% in the month to £656,512. However, they rose by 12.3% over the year.
Annually, the largest increase was once again in Tower Hamlets, where prices rose by 42.0% over the year, to an average of £630,760. The monthly increase here was 1.7%.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to April 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 0.2%. Over the year, the change is a 13.3% rise.
The City of London had the largest monthly rise: up 4.8% to £926,359. The annual rise here was 18.1%.
Next in line, Merton rose by 4.5% in the month to £509,310. The annual change here was a rise of 8.5%.
The City of Westminster was the borough with the largest monthly decrease – down 2.9% to £1,188,406. This is 13.7% lower than last year, which is the only decrease in the year.
Once again, Lambeth has the highest annual increase – 40.3% over the year to an average of £586,862, although the monthly change here was a fall of 1.3%.
The most expensive London borough to buy property is still Kensington and Chelsea, where the average price is now £1,905,615 – 2.7% lower than last month but 30.6% higher that last year.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £206,991, although this is a rise of 2.3% since last month, and of 12.2% since last year.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s May survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Wandsworth –  the borough saw a rise of 2.9% in the month. The average price is now £536,333, which is 20.0% higher than last year.
Brent saw the only monthly fall – 0.6% to £377,793, although this is 11.5% higher than last May.
The biggest annual rise was yet again in Waltham Forest, where prices rose by 26.3% to £327,784, which is 1.4% higher than last month.
Redbridge saw the smallest annual rise of 6.5%, to £318,314. This borough saw a monthly rise of 0.3%.
Source: Land Registry

Average House Price by region since January 2005.
LSL Acadata May report analysed the current average house prices in England and Wales by region, and compared them to the prices in January 2005. This showed that although prices everywhere had risen in terms of the actual amount of money, in ‘real’ terms, i.e. after the effects of inflation, only London and the South East had seen prices rise. All the other regions are still catching up.
Overall, house prices have risen by 32.4% over the 9¼ years, at an average of 3.5% per annum. However, in ‘real’ terms, the increase is only 3.9%, an average of only 0.4% per year.
Specifically, Greater London’s increase over the period is nominally 82.1% (averaging 8.9% p.a.). Taking inflation into account, this just about halves the increase – 42.8% over the entire period, at 4.6% p.a.
In the East Midlands, house prices have risen 8.1% over the term at an average of 0.9% p.a. However, in ‘real’ terms, prices are still 15.2% lower than January 2005, losing at at average of 1.6% p.a.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Analysis of Nationwide’s UK House Prices Index report for Q2 2014.
In Quarter 2 of 2014, the average UK house price has been calculated (after seasonal adjustment) as £186,544 by the Nationwide. This is 2.9% higher than Q1 2014, and shows a 11.5% increase since the same quarter last year. For the eleventh successive quarter, the most expensive region in the UK to buy a property is, not surprisingly, London, and the least expensive region is once again Northern Ireland.
Over the quarter, London’s average price rose by 7.6% to £400,404, whereas in Scotland, there was no significant change at £141,872. Over the past year, London’s prices have risen by 25.8%, whereas Scotland’s prices rose by 5.4%.
As mentioned above, London had an increase in house prices of 25.8% on last year, and a 7.6% increase on last quarter. The average price is £404,404. Westminster is still the most expensive borough, with the average price  (£959,882) over four times the average price in the cheapest borough, Barking & Dagenham (£230,592).
House prices in England have risen 4.3% over the quarter, and 14.6% over the year. The average price in England is £223,364. The North is still the cheapest place in England to buy a property, where the average price was £125,106 during the quarter.
Wales’ quarterly change was a rise of 1.8%, and the annual rise was 9.3%. The average price in Wales is now £145,812, with Cardiff remaining the most expensive area – the average house price in Cardiff is £221,819.
Scotland’s house prices stayed the same as last quarter, and rose 5.4% from last year, to an  average price of £141,872. Aberdeen City is still the most expensive place to buy a house in Scotland – the average price there is £263,986.
House prices in Northern Ireland are now 8.4% up on last year, and 0.6% up on last quarter, standing at an average of £117,150. The City of Belfast still has the highest prices  at an average of  £175,978.
On an annual basis, looking at towns and cities within England, after altering the basis of comparison, London performed best, with house prices increasing by 22% since last year. The average price of a house in London is now £432,113.
The worst performance in England was Newcastle, where prices rose by only 3% in the year. House prices here average £181,473.
Source: Nationwide

Nationwide sub-regional analysis of average house prices over the last 10 years.
Analysing the price rises over Great Britain by region over the last ten years shows some major differences. Compared to 10 years ago, the average house price in Aberdeenshire & Moray has risen by 96% to £192,205. This is the highest rise outside London, where Camden’s average price has risen by 139% over the decade to £843,456.
However, in the West of Northern Ireland,  the average price of £109,124 is only 3% higher than 10 years ago. On the mainland, Nottingham fared worst, with house prices averaging £162,503 –  only 3% higher than a decade ago.
The London Borough which saw the smallest rise is Barking & Dagenham, where average prices rose by 32% over the past ten years to £230,592.
Source: Nationwide

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for May 2014 (published 12th June 2014) says that “New instructions to sell continue to fall while demand rises” and ” Average perceived Loan To Value ratios drop back”.
The South East and East Anglia once again saw the largest price rises over the month, whilst the North saw the smallest.
The North had the highest level of agreed sales in May, with every area seeing a rise except the West Midlands which saw a tiny fall..
Yorkshire & Humberside had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month whereas London, East Anglia and the North saw a drop in numbers..
The highest level of new vendor instructions was in Wales. The other regions which saw a rise were Yorkshire & Humberside, Scotland and London. Everywhere else saw a decrease in new vendor instructions with the North West seeing the largest decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising, with mixed results between the indices published. Prices of Flats are still rising fastest.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 8th June 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 7.7%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are priced higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 13.7% to £237,498.
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 11.9% to £215,548.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 7.0% to £400,190.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 9.0% to £225,323.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s May average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 6.7% in the year to the end of May 2014. The average price is now £172,035

  • Flats and Maisonette properties rose by 9.2% to £166,944
  • Terraced properties rose by 6.1% to £129,297
  • Detached properties rose by 5.9% to £268,897
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 6.3% to £162,408.

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

 New Mortgages granted – April Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 53,200 loans were made in April for house purchase, worth £8.8 billion. This is higher than March’s in number by 6.2% and in value by 11.4%. However, these figures are up 33.0% and 46.7% (respectively) than last April’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 24,500, valued at £3.5 billion, which is up by 1.2% in number and 2.9% in value on last month. However, this is 36.9% higher in number and 52.2% higher in value, compared to last April’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £5.3 billion, and numbered 28,700. These figures are up 10.8% in terms of number, and 15.2% in value on last month.  However, they are up 29.9% in number and 47.2% in value on last April.
The number and value of remortgage loans also rose in the month – 26,300 loans worth £4.0 billion were made in April. These figures are 6.0% higher than last month’s in terms of volume but an increase of 11.0% in value. Curiously, although this was much the same in number, it was a rise of 18.0% in value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – May Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that May’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £16.5 billion. This is the same as April’s figure, and a rise of 12% on last May’s £14.8 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during April 2014, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.2 billion (16,200 loans). This is lower than March by 1.2% in number but the same in value.
Fewer than half of the buy-to-let loans were for remortgage: 7,600 loans worth £1.2 billion – a decrease of 6.4% in number, but a rise of 2.6% in value on the previous month.
Loans for house purchase totalled 8,400 loans worth £1.0 billion, a rise of 38.4% in number and an increase of 60% in value on April 2013..
Compared to April last year, both the number and value of all buy-to-let mortgages have risen considerably – the total number has risen by 43.4% and the value by 57.1%.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.2m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £114,872 in April 2014.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.283 trillion at the end of April 2014. This is up from the previous April’s £1,268 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s May Report, in March 2014, 63,587 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 8,745 in London. This represents a rise of 16% in England & Wales, and of 14% in London since last March’s figures, (54,708 and 7,659 respectively).
Compared to last March, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 458 to 577 – a rise of 26%, and in England & Wales it increased from 657 to 840 – a rise of 28%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 17.2% in England & Wales (from 38,982 last March to 45,697 this March), but it fell by 9.1% in London (from 3,034 to 2,759 in the same period).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from December 2013 to March 2014 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 67,969. This is up 35.9% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 50,016 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
Hometrack compile sample data monthly from thousands of Estate Agents in all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales. The figures are weighted according to postcode, but not seasonally adjusted.
June’s survey (published 27th June 2014) shows that house prices increased by 0.3% in the month – this is slightly lower than last month’s 0.5%.
The average amount of time that a house is on the market has slipped down 0.6 weeks to 5.9 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 3.5 weeks in the South East to 10.0 weeks in the North East.
On average, 96.6% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 98.7% in Greater London, down to 95.2% in the North West.
32% of postcode districts reported a price increase in June, a fall from April’s 50%. and May’s 42% The number of postcodes reporting a decrease is 1.6%.
Source: Hometrack

NHBC New Home Registration figures
The latest figures from the National House Building Council state that in the quarter to May 2014, 37,975 new homes were registered, 4% up on the same quarter last year (36,487).
Although this May’s number of registrations (13,220) is 5% down on last May’s (13,914), it is the highest month this year so far.
NHBC

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in August 2014.

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