Property Market Monthly Fact File – June 2014

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for five years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price ranges from 172k (Land Registry) to 272k (Rightmove).

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to March 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 20th May 2014, show that house prices increased by 8.0% over the year, to an average of £252k.. This is a 0.5% fall over the month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 4.7% to £195k.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in March was £193k. Over the year, this is an increase of 10.0%. Existing owners paid an average of £290k in March, an increase of 7.2% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £236k in March, which is an increase of 2.1% from last March. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £253k, which is 9.3% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £172,069 as at the end of April 2014, according to the report published on 30th May 2014.
The Monthly change in April in England and Wales was a 1.5% fall.
The Annual change to end of April in England and Wales was a rise of 6.7%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of April 2014 was £177,648, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 8th May 2014. House prices in April were 0.2% lower than in March, but the quarterly figure was up by 2.3%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 8.5% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 3rd June 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £186,512 during the month of May. This is an increase from April of 0.7%, and an annual rise of 11.1%. This is the thirteenth consecutive month which has seen a rise in house prices.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s May survey (published 19th May 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 6th April to 10th May 2014 was £272,003, a rise of 3.6% on the previous month. House asking prices are 8.9% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata April figures, published 9th May 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £263,113 in the month. This is a 0.5% increase from March, but a 7.3% rise since last April.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the April 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in April is then £171,210: 1.7% up on March and 7.6% up on April 2013.
In the quarter from November to February, the number of repossessions averaged 1,063 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,453 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to February 2014 of 33% – 1,387 to 936. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the East Midlands had 40% fewer repossession sales compared to last February, whereas Wales had 15% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY.
Greater London and the South East consistently out-perform the more northern regions.

ONS House Price Index regional figures.
The average house price in England in March 2014 was £263k, £164k in Wales, £132k in Northern Ireland and £181k in Scotland.
Over the year to March 2014, England’s rise was 8.5% and Wales’ by 4.9%.
Northern Ireland’s rose by 0.3% and Scotland’s rose by 0.8%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 17.0% over the year to an average of £459k, while the South East and the East of England rose by 6.1% and 6.6% respectively. The smallest rise was 3.1% in the North West (to an average of £148k).
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s May survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 6th April to 10th May 2014 as £272,003.
The largest monthly increase was in the South East, where asking prices rose by 4.5% over the period from £335,799 to £351,030. The annual change there was a rise of 7.8% – the second largest monthly increase.
The smallest monthly increase was once again in the West Midlands where average prices rose by 0.7%, from £196,952 to £198,406. The annual change there was a rise of 2.8%.
The largest annual rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 16.3% over the year from £573,799 to an average of £592,763. The monthly increase was 3.3%.
The smallest annual rise is in the North, where prices rose by 0.1% over the year, from £152,689 to £152,790.
Source: Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s April survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increases was in London, which saw an increase over the month of 4.2%, bringing the average house price in the region to £435,034. This is 17.0%  higher than this time last year – the largest annual increase by far..
The only monthly decrease in price was in the North East, where the average price fell
1.9% to £99,001, which is 2.9% higher than a year ago – the smallest annual increase.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that in March 2014, all of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices both monthly and annually.
Figures for England and Wales overall show an average house price of £261,913, which is  a 0.5% increase over the month and a 7.3% increase over the year.
The largest rise in the month was Greater London – up 1.2% to an average of £530,770.  The annual rise here was 13.2%, which is the largest of all the annual rises.
The West Midlands saw no significant change in the month – a decrease from £182,738 to £182,683. However, this is 4.4% higher than last year.
The smallest annual rise was in the North West, where prices increased by 2.7% over the year, to an average of £159,557. The monthly rise here was 0.2%.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s April survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in London, where the average price is up by 4.2% to £435,034. This is 17.0% higher than last year – the greatest annual rise.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was in Ceredigion and Blackburn with Darwen, where prices fell by 2.2% to an average of £147,748 and £69,928 respectively, which is 7.1%  and 6.4% lower than last year.
Annually, it’s the same line-up as February and March:  Greater London saw the largest annual price rise (see above) and the largest annual fall was in Blaenau Gwent, where prices fell by 19.4% to £62,329. However, this is 0.5% higher than March.
Two counties / authorities saw no price movement in the month – Monmouthshire and Norfolk., although eight saw a difference of only 0.1%.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in March 2014 was Monmouthshire, where average prices rose by 5.2% to £228,808. The annual change there was a rise of 5.3%.
Next is the Vale of Glamorgan, where prices rose by 3.1% in the month (9.4% annual rise) to an average of £231,128.
Bournemouth saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 3.6% to £204,824. The annual change was a rise of 2.3%.
Over the past year, Poole (once again) saw the largest increase – up 15.6% to £312,404. Poole’s average house prices rose by 1.6% this month.
The largest annual decrease was in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 9.3% to £99,102. However, this is 1.1% higher than last month.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s April survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase was in Gateshead, where the average prices were up by 4.4% to £98,842. This is 6.4% higher  than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was in Knowsley, where prices fell by 1.2% to an average of £100,446. This is 1.6% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise is once again in Oldham, where prices rose by 12.1% to an average of £82,845. However, this is 0.5% lower than last month.
The largest annual fall was in Tameside –  average prices fell by 3.7% over the year to £90,148. This is no change from last year.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period from 6th April to 10th May 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in Haringey, where they rose by 6.8% to an average of £689,472. The annual rise was 14.7%.
The smallest increase in asking prices was in Greenwich, where they rose by 0.6% in the month to £352,883. However, they rose by 14.0% over the year.
Annually, the largest increase was once again in Tower Hamlets, where prices rose by 43.1% over the year, to an average of £620,131. The monthly increase here was 3.9%.
The only annual decrease was in the City of Westminster, where the average asking price fell by 1.2% over the year to £1,649,211. The monthly increase was 5.3%.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to March 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 1.2%. Over the year, the change is a 13.2% rise.
Once again, Lambeth had the largest monthly rise: up 5.0% to £580,647. The annual rise here was 34.7%. This is the largest annual rise. The City of London also rose by 5.0% in the month to £867,143. The annual change here was a rise of 13.6%.
Haringey was the borough with the largest decrease – down 6.0% to £462,196. This is 4.3% higher than last year.
The only borough to see a decrease in prices over the year was yet again the City of Westminster, where prices fell by 9.9% to £1,232,630. There was a slight fall over the month of 0.2%.
The most expensive London borough to buy property is still Kensington and Chelsea, where the average price is now £1,940,519 – 3.7% higher than last month and 30.2% higher that last year.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £202,120, although this is a rise of 1.9% since last month, but 10.0% higher than last year.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s April survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
There were no falls in the month or compared to last April.
The greatest monthly price increase is in Ealing –  the borough saw a rise of 3.1% in the month. The average price is now £405,581, which is 17.9% higher than last year.
Hillingdon saw the smallest monthly rise – 0.1% to £291,439, although this is 7.7% higher than last April.
The biggest annual rise was onca again in Waltham Forest, where prices rose by 26.2% to £323,288, which is 2.6% higher than last month.
Redbridge saw the smallest annual rise of 6.1%, to £316,967. This borough saw a monthly rise of 0.2%.
Source: Land Registry

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for April 2014 (published 8th May 2014) says that ” Demand Supply imbalance contines to push prices higher” and ” more favourable credit conditions … have increased the supply of mortgage finance”..
The South East and East Anglia saw the largest price rises over the month, and Wales saw the smallest.
Wales had the highest level of agreed sales in April, with every area seeing a rise, although the West Midlands’ was the smallest.
Wales had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month whereas the West Midlands saw the lowest.
The highest level of new vendor instructions was in the South West. All other regions except Scotland saw a decrease in new vendor instructions. The East Midlands saw the largest decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising, with mixed results between the indices published. Prices of Flats are rising fastest.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 10th May 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 8.9%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are priced higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 14.4% to £237,350.
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 11.1% to £212,344.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 8.4% to £400,698.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 7.7% to £222,988.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s April average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 6.7% in the year to the end of April 2014. The average price is now £172,069

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 10.0% to £166,952
  • Terraced properties rose by 5.9% to £129,329
  • Detached properties rose by 5.7% to £269,666
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 5.9% to £162,059.

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

New Mortgages granted – March Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 50,500 loans were made in March for house purchase, worth £8.0 billion. This is higher than February’s in number by 4.0% and in value by 2.6%. However, these figures are up 17.4% and 27.0% (respectively) than last March’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 24,400, valued at £3.4 billion, which is up by 8.9% in number and 9.7% in value on last month. However, this is 24.0% higher in number and 36.0% higher in value, compared to last March’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £4.6 billion, and numbered 26,100. These figures are much the same as February’s in terms of number, and down 2.1% in value.  However, they are up 11.1% in number and 17.9% in value on last March.
The number and value of remortgage loans rose in the month – 25,000 loans worth £3.6 billion were made in March. These figures are 1.6% higher than last month’s in terms of volume but not significantly changed in value. However, this was a rise of 4.6% in number, and a rise of 16.1% in value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – April Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that April’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £16.6 billion. This is 8% higher than March’s figure, and a rise of 36% on last April’s £12.2 billion. This is the highest April total since 2008’s £25.7 billion..
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Mortgage Arrears and Homes Repossessions
The number of UK mortgages in arrears has fallen slightly to 1.24% of all mortgages.
During Q1 2014, 138,200 mortgages were in arrears, i.e. behind by more than 2.5% of the mortgage balance. These are the lowest figures since Q2 2008. By comparison, 1.29% of mortgages (144,600) were in arrears at the end of 2013, and 159,700 (1.42%) a year ago.
The number of repossessions in Q1 2014 was 6,400, up from 6,100 in Q4 2013 but 20% lower than the 8,000 in Q1 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.2m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £114,416 in February 2014.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.281 trillion at the end of March 2014. This is up from the previous March’s £1,268 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s April Report, in February 2014, 62,368 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 8,700 in London. This represents a rise of 38% in England & Wales, and of 30% in London since last February’s figures, (45,236 and 6,697 respectively).
Compared to last February, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 379 to 589 – a rise of 55%, and in England & Wales it increased from 507 to 836 – a rise of 65%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 31.7% in England & Wales (from 33,789 last February to 44,491 this February), but it only rose by 1.4% in London (from 2,679 to 2,717 in the same period).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from November 2013 to February 2014 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 72,080. This is up 37.7% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 52,331 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Housing Transactions..
In Q1 2013 there were 135,330 housing transactions in England and Wales. In Q1 2014, there were 187,903 – a rise of 38.8%. Regionally, the East Midlands saw the largest rise – up 42.5% to 15,623. Greater London saw the smallest increase – up 34.7% to 26,828. This is said to be due to the smaller number of properties.
Analysed by property type, the volume of transaction involving flats has increased by 47.1% between Q1 2013 and Q1 2014 (from 25,492 to 37,492), whereas the increase in volume of the other property types – detached, semi-detached and terraced – was below the average 38.8%. The report links this to the increase in first-time buyers using the Help-to-Buy scheme, and more buy-to-let landlords.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
Hometrack compile sample data monthly from thousands of Estate Agents in all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales. The figures are weighted according to postcode, but not seasonally adjusted.
May’s survey (published 30th May 2014) shows that house prices increased by 0.5% in the month – this is slightly lower than last month’s 0.6%.
The average amount of time that a house is on the market has crept up 0.2 weeks to 6.5 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 3.4 weeks in London to 10.1 weeks in Yorkshire & Humberside.
On average, 96.8% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 99.2% in Greater London, down to 95.6% in the North West.
42% of postcode districts reported a price increase in May, a fall from March’s and April’s 50%. The number of postcodes reporting a decrease remains so low as to be statistically insignificant.
Source: Hometrack

Average House Price by region – % below peak.
LSL Acadata April report shows that compared to the peak of 2007- 2008, the average house prices in the South East, Greater London and East Anglia have all exceeded their peak prices.
The North is still 8.1% lower than peak, and the North West is still 7.2% lower.
Splitting the regions down further into County or Unitary Authority, the lowest prices below peak are in Blaenau Gwent (29% below) and Blackpool (26% below)
Source: Acadata Ltd

New Home Registration figures
NHBC New Home Statistics Review of Q1 2014 (published 9th May) show a 7% increase in the number of new homes registered in the UK, compared to Q1 2013 (from 31,739 to 33,816).
New Home registrations in the private sector grew by 3% while the public sector registrations rose by 16% between Q1 2013 and Q1 2014.
Regionally, Scotland had 5% more than Q1 2013, and Northern Ireland had 22% more. Wales saw a fall of 16% whereas England rose by 7% overall.
Within England, the West Midlands’ rose by 30% and the North West’s by 25%, whereas East Anglia’s fell by 21%.
Of the top ten cities, Birmingham tops the table with 3,406 registrations, followed by Manchester with 2,625.
Within London, the top ten boroughs start with Tower Hamlets, which saw 3,673 new home registrations in the first quarter of 2014. Wandsworth was next with 2,136.
Analysing by property type, 38% of the new homes registered were Flats and/or maisonettes. Only 2% were bungalows. This has been fairly consistent over the past few years.
In 2013, just over 30% of new home buyers were between 25 and 34 years old. 25% were in the over 55s bracket, and less than 6% were under 25 years of age.
Of the 2,528 under 25s, 793 bought semi-detached properties and only 6 bought bungalows. However, in the over 55s group, 389 of the 10,970 bought bungalows, and 4,030 bought flats.
Source: NHBC

NHBC Figures for new homes
NHBC figures released 30th May for new homes registered for the rolling quarter February to April 2014.
34,239 new homes have been registered in this period, compared to 33,111 in the same period last year – a 3% rise. April’s figure increased by 4% over last April (11,912 from 11,484) making it the highest April total since 2007.
The figures are 25,046 in the private sector, and  9,193 public sector:  an increase of 2.1% and 7.3% respectively on the same period last year.
Regional analysis shows that  the Isle of Man saw the largest fall in registrations in this period (compared with a year ago) of 37.5% (from 48 to 30). The next region is Wales, which saw a fall of 10.1% (from 1,008 to 906). Scotland saw a fall of 2.5%, but Northern Ireland saw a rise of 6.0%. England’s overall rise was of 6.5%.
Within England, the largest increase was the South East, where registrations increased by 31.9% from 3,647 last year to 4,809 this year. Next highest was West Midlands (17.8% increase).
The South West and Yorkshire & Humberside saw the greatest falls in registrations – down 8.5% and 8.4% respectively in this period.
Source: NHBC

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in July 2014.

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