Property Market Fact File – January 2014

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for a record period, i.e. since 5th March, 2009.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price in England ranges from 165k (Land Registry) to 247k (Office for National Statistics). Not all indices show an increase in the month, but they do over the past year.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to October 2013, published by the Office for National Statistics on 17th December 2013, show that house prices increased by 5.5% over the year, to an average of £247k..
First-time buyers’s average house price paid in October was £185k. Over the year, this is an increase of 5.9%. Existing owners paid an average of £283k in October, an increase of 5.3% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £223k in October, which is an increase of 2.7% on last October. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £249k, which is 5.7% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £165,411 as at the end of November 2013, according to the report published on 31st December 2013.
The Monthly change in November in England and Wales was a 0.1% rise.
The Annual change to November in England and Wales was a rise of 3.2%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of November 2013 was £174,910, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 6th December 2013. House prices in November were 1.1% higher than in September, and the quarterly figure was up by 2.1%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 7.7% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 3rd January 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £175,826 during the month of December. This is an increase from November of 1.4%, and an annual rise of 8.4%.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s December survey (published 16th December 2013) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 10th November 2013 to 8th December 2013 was £241,455, a fall of 1.9% on the previous month. However, house asking prices are 5.4% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata November figures, published 13th December 2013, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £238,839 in the month. This is only a 0.6% increase from October, but a 4.9% rise since last November.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the November 2013 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in November is then £164,275: 0.1% up on October 2013  and 3.9% up on November 2012.
In the months from June to September, the number of repossessions averaged 1,188 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,523 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to September 2013 of 23% – 1,337 to 1,036. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the South East had 39% fewer repossession sales compared to last September, whereas Wales had 14% more.
Source: Land Registry

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY ACROSS ENGLAND AND WALES
Mixed fortunes for Wales and Waltham Forest, although a universal North/South divide appears.

ONS House Price Index regional figures.
The average house price in England in October 2013 was £257k, £164k in Wales, £129k in Northern Ireland and £184k in Scotland.
Over the year to October 2013, England’s rise was 5.7% and Northern Ireland’s by 4.8%.   Scotland’s rose by 3.3% and Wales’ by 2.0%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 12.0% over the year, while the  East and West Midlands regions rose by 4.8% and 4.7% respectively. Yorkshire & Humberside region saw the smallest rise which was 0.8%.
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s December survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 10th November 2013 to 8th December 2013 as £241,455.
The smallest monthly decrease was in East Anglia, where asking prices fell by 0.2% over the period from £226,015 to £225,511. The annual change there was a rise of 3.2%.
The largest monthly decreases were in the East Midlands and the South East. Average prices there fell by 2.7%, from £168,873 to £164,366, and from £312,087 to £303,717 respectively. The annual changes there are 3.7% and 5.7% increases respectively.
The largest annual rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 10.6% over the year from £464,398 to an average of £513,466. The monthly decrease was 0.7%.
The smallest annual rise was in the North, where prices rose 0.8% from £137,108 to £138,179 over the year. The monthly change was a fall of 2.3%.
Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s November survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in London, which saw an increase over the month of 1.8%, bringing the average house price in the capital to £396,646. This is 10.6% higher than this time last year – the largest annual rise of all the regions.
The largest monthly decrease in price is in the East, where the average price fell 0.7% to £177,975, although this is 3.1% higher than a year ago.
The only annual drop in prices was in the North East, where prices fell by 1.6% to £96,227, although the monthly change was a rise of 1.1%.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that by October 2013, all of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices both monthly and annually.
East Anglia saw the smallest monthly rise – a 0.1% increase to £207,701. This is 2.3% higher than last year.
The largest was Greater London – up 1.0% to an average of £466,359.  The annual rise here was 9.2%, which is the largest of all the annual rises.
Wales saw a the smallest annual rise in average house prices of 1.4% to £154,696 – this is 0.7% higher than last month.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s November survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is Blaenau Gwent, where the average price is up by 7.1% to £70,725. This is 3.8% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was Middlesbrough, where prices fell by 3.0% to an average of £74,714. This is 6.1% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise was once again Greater London, where prices rose by 10.6% to £396,646. This is 1.8% up on last month.
The largest annual fall was in Hartlepool, where prices fell by 9.9% to £71,749. However, this is 0.3% higher than October.
Five counties / authorities saw no price movement in the month.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in October 2013 was Darlington, where average prices rose by 3.8% to £141,118. The annual rise there was 13.3%.
Next is the City of Nottingham, where prices rose by 3.6% (0.6% annual rise) to an average of £117,197.
Blaenau Gwent saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 4.1% to £79,695. The annual rate was a rise of 3.0%.
Annually, the largest rise in average prices was Rutland, where they rose by 15.0% to £300,664. This is a rise of 1.5% over the month. The largest annual decrease was once again Middlesbrough, where prices fell by 12.9% to £104,208. This is a drop of 0.6% over the month.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s November survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Bury, where the average price is up by 2.5% to £110,315. However, this is 1.2% lower than this time last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price is in Dudley, where prices fell by 1.3% to an average of £118,007. This is 0.9% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise is in Manchester, where prices rose by 4.8% to an average of £95,438.
Sunderland’s average price fell by 4.2% over the year to £83,977. This was the largest annual fall. The monthly drop here was 0.3%.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period from 10th November 2013 to 8th December 2013, the largest increase in asking prices was in Camden, where they rose by 2.0% to an average of £984,508. The annual rise was 2.2%.
The greatest decrease in asking prices was in Kensington & Chelsea, where they fell by 4.1% in the month to £2,204,821. However, they rose by 2.4% over the year.
Annually, Hammersmith & Fulham’s rise was the largest of all the boroughs – asking prices rose by 21.5% over the year to £1,076,257.
Haringey saw the only annual decrease, where average asking prices fell by 0.1% over the year to £541,726. The monthly change there was a fall of 3.7%.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to October 2013, overall house prices in London increased by 1.0%. Lambeth had the largest rise – 5.2% to £465,985. The annual rise here was 15.4%.
At the other end of the scale, Kensington & Chelsea saw the greatest fall in prices in the month – down 2.0% to £1,548,115. The annual change was a rise of 4.3%.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £182,980, although this is 1.4% lower than September, and 1.8% higher than last year.
Comparing October 2012 to October 2013, the City of London saw the largest increase in house prices – up 40.0% to an average of £740,014. The monthly change was a fall of 1.3%.
The only borough with a decrease over the year was the City of Westminster, where prices fell by 1.3% over the year to £1,175,052. The monthly change was a 1.5% rise.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s November survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is shared by Barking & Dagenham and Newham –  both boroughs saw a monthly price rise of 2.2%. The average price in Barking & Dagenham is now £224,567, which is 6.8% higher than last year.  The average price in Newham is now £234,777, which is 2.7% higher than last year.
The largest monthly drop was in Camden, where prices fell by 1.0% to £682,947. This is a rise of 8.7% over the year.
The largest annual price rise is in Waltham Forest, where prices rose by 15.3% to £289,709 which is 1.8% higher than last month.
There were no annual decreases in price, but Harrow saw the smallest rise of 1.9%, where prices now average £312,959. However, this is 0.9% lower than month.
Source: Land Registry

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for November 2013 (published 10th December 2013) says that  “Stagnating instructions underpin stronger price trend” and that  “prices are rising on the back of tighter market conditions”.
Once again, London and the South East saw the largest price rises over the month. The North saw the smallest rise in prices.
The North West had the highest level of agreed sales in November, with every area seeing a rise, although Wales’ were the lowest.
The North had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month – all regions saw a rise in this indicator, with Wales seeing the lowest of the regions..
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in Yorkshire & Humberside, with only East Anglia, the North West and the South East seeing a decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Analysis of Nationwide’s UK House Prices Index report for Q4 2013.
In Quarter 4 of 2013, the average UK house price has been calculated (after seasonal adjustment) as £174,444 by the Nationwide. This is 2.7% higher than Q3, and gives a figure of a 7.1% increase since the same quarter last year. For the ninth successive quarter, the most expensive region in the UK to buy a property is, not surprisingly, London, and the least expensive region is once again Northern Ireland.
House prices in Northern Ireland are now 7.0% up on last year, and 3.9% up on last quarter, standing at an average of £111,612. The City of Belfast still has the highest prices – at £160,102, the quarterly rise is 3% and the annual ris is 6%.
London had an increase in house prices of 14.9% on last year, and a 4.7% increase on last quarter. The average price is £345,186. Westminster is still the most expensive borough, with average prices (£810,870) more than three and a half times the average price in the cheapest borough, Barking & Dagenham (£208,996).
House prices in England have risen 3.1% over the quarter, and 8.6% over the year. The average price in England is £205,084. The North is still the cheapest place in England to buy a property, where the average price is £116,417.
Wales’ quarterly change was a rise of 2.9%, and the annual rise was 6.1%. The average price in Wales is now £139,722, with Cardiff remaining the most expensive area – the average house price in Cardiff is £213,626.
Scotland’s house prices rose 1.3% on last quarter, and 3.7% from last year, to an  average price of £136,729. Aberdeen City is the most expensive place to buy a house in Scotland – the average price there is £240,551.
On an annual basis, looking at towns and cities within England, Manchester once again performed best, with house prices increasing by 21% since last year. The average price of a house in Manchester is £209,627.
The worst performance in England was Carlisle, where prices rose by only 1% in the year. House prices here average £136,128.
Source: Nationwide

Nationwide sub-regional analysis of average house prices over the last 10 years.
Analysing the price rises over Great Britain by region over the last ten years shows some major differences. Compared to 10 years ago, the average house price in Aberdeen City has risen by 107% to £240,551. This is the highest rise outside London, where Hammersmith & Fulham’s average price has risen by 120% over the decade to £693,585.
However, in the West of Northern Ireland,  the average price of £101,741 is only 7% higher than 10 years ago. On the mainland, Swindon fared worst, with house prices averaging £188,397 –  only 11% higher than a decade ago.
The London Borough which saw the smallest rise is Barking & Dagenham, where average prices rose by 22% over the past ten years to £208,996.
Source: Nationwide

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising, although Detached and Semi-detached properties seem to be rising slower than Terraced properties and Flats/Apartments.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 8th December 2013, the average change over all property types was an increase of 5.4%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 6.1% to £213,977.
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 5.1% to £190,844.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 3.9% to £205,671.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 3.7% to £357,940.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s November average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 3.2% in the year since November 2012. The average price is now £165,411.

  • Terraced properties rose by 3.9% to £125,729
  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 3.4% to £155,668
  • Detached properties rose by 3.0% to £260,460
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 2.5% to £156,335.

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

New Mortgages granted – October Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 60,800 loans were made in October for house purchase, worth £9.7 billion. This is higher than September in number (17.4%) and in value (16.9%). These figures are up 23.6% and 32.9% (respectively) than last October’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 26,800, valued at £3.7 billion, which is up by 15.5% in number and up by 15.6% in value on last month. This is 33.3% higher in number and 48.0% higher in value, compared to last October’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £5.2 billion, and numbered 33,900. These figures are 18.5% higher than September’s in terms of number, and 15.7% higher in value.  These figures are up 16.1% in number and 22.9% in value on last October.
However, the number and value of remortgage loans fell in the month – 28,300 loans worth £4.2 billion were made in October. These figures are 12.4% lower than last month’s in terms of volume and 10.6% lower in value. However, although this was a fall of 2.6% in number, it was a rise of 13.5% in value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – November Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that November’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £17.0 billion. This is 4% lower than October’s £17.6 billion, but a rise of 30% from last November’s £13.0 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during October 2013, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.1 billion (16,200 loans). This is an increase of 11% in number and 10.5% in value from September (14,600 loans worth £1.9 billion).
Over half of the buy-to-let loans were for house purchase: 8,500 loans worth £1.0 billion – an increase of 11.3% in number, and of 14.9% in value on the previous month.
Loans for remortgaging totalled 7,600 loans worth £1.1 billion, a rise of 10.9% in number and 11.1% in value since September.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.2m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £113,404 by the end of October 2013.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.271 trillion at the end of October 2013. This is up from the previous October’s £1,265 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s November Report, in September 2013, 65,378 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 9,421 in London. This represents a rise of 24% in England & Wales, and of 20% in London since last September’s figures, (52,870 and 7,853 respectively).
Compared to last September, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 409 to 686 – a rise of 68%, and in England & Wales it increased from 639 to 1,020 – a rise of 60%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 20.4% in England & Wales (from 37,968 last September to 45,701 this September), and it rose by 5.5% in London (from 2,897 to 3,057).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from June to September 2013 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 70,021. This is up 18.2% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 59,228 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
Hometrack compile sample data monthly from thousands of Estate Agents in all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales. The figures are weighted according to postcode, but not seasonally adjusted.
December’s figures (published 30th December 2013) show that the average amount of time that a house is on the market has fallen to 8.0 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 3.1 weeks in London to 15.1 weeks in the North East.
On average, 95.4% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 98.1% in Greater London, down to 92.7% in the North East.
38.9% of postcode districts reported a price increase in December, lower than November’s 45.8%. 3.9% had a price decrease over the month, up from November’s 3.2%.
Source: Hometrack

Home Builders Federation figures
Home Builders Federation’s latest Housing Pipeline Report states that the number of planning permissions granted in Great Britain in the third quarter of 2013 was 48,700 residential units. This is 20% more than the previous quarter, and 33% more than Q3 last year.
Social housing approvals in this quarter rose to 7,109, up 26% on Q2 2013 and up 81% on a year ago.
Source: Home Builders Federation

NHBC Figures for new homes
NHBC have released figures for new homes registered for the rolling quarter September to November 2013.
34,356 new homes have been registered in this period, compared to 26,420 in the same period last year – a 30% rise.
In November, the figure was 11,409, (8,010 private sector, 3,399 public sector), an increase of 20% on last November’s 9,553.
Regional analysis shows that all regions except Northern Ireland saw a rise in registrations in this three month period (registrations fell from 20 to 8).
Within England, East Midlands saw the greatest rise in registrations – up 70.6% to 2,831 in this period compared to 1,659 in the same period a year ago.
Source: NHBC

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in February 2014.

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