Property Market Fact File – December 2013

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for a record period, i.e. since 05th March, 2009.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices. This month the average house price in England ranges from 165k to 246k. Not all indices show an increase in the month, but they all do over the past year.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to September 2013, published by the Office for National Statistics on 12th November 2013, show that house prices increased by 3.8% over the year, to an average of £245k..
First-time buyers’s average house price paid in September was £184k. Over the year, this is an increase of 5.3%. Existing owners paid an average of £281k in September, an increase of 3.2% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £228k in September, which is an increase of 5.9% on last September. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £246k, which is 4.7% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £165,515 as at the end of October 2013, according to the report published on 28th November 2013.
The Monthly change in October in England and Wales was a 0.2% fall.
The Annual change to October in England and Wales was a rise of 3.1%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of October 2013 was £171,991, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 6th November 2013. House prices in October were 0.7% higher than in September, and the quarterly figure was up by 1.6%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 6.9% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 29th November 2013 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £174,566 during the month of November. This is an increase from October of 0.6%, and an annual rise of 6.5%.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s November survey (published 18th November 2013) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 13th October 2013 to 9th November 2013 was £246,237, a fall of 2.4% on the previous month. However, house asking prices are 4.0% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadametrics House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics’ October figures, published 8th November 2013, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £237,161 in the month. This is only a 0.6% increase from September, but a 4.3% rise since last October.
Source: Acadametrics Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the October 2013 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in October is then £164,273: 0.1% down on September 2013  and 3.9% up on October 2012.
In the months from May to August, the number of repossessions averaged 1,277 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,630 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to August 2013 of 29% – 1,682 to 1,200. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the North East had 7% fewer repossession sales compared to last August, whereas the South East had 41% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY ACROSS ENGLAND AND WALES. Mixed fortunes for Wales and Waltham Forest, although a universal North/South divide appears.

ONS House Price Index regional figures.
The average house price in England in September 2013 was £255k, £163k in Wales, £127k in Northern Ireland and £181k in Scotland.
Over the year to September 2013, England’s rise was 4.2% and Wales’ by 1.4%. Northern Ireland’s fell by 1.5% and  Scotland’s fell by 1.1%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose over the year by 9.4%, followed by the South East and the Yorkshire & Humberside region, which rose by 4.0% and 3.0% respectively. The only decrease was the North East, where prices fell by 0.3%.
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s November survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 13th October 2013 to 9th November 2013 as £246,237.
There were no monthly increases.
The smallest monthly decrease was in Wales, where asking prices fell by 0.4% over the period from £165,708 to £165,110. The annual change there was a rise of 1.3%.
The largest monthly decrease was in Greater London. Average prices there fell by 5.0% from £544,232 in October to £517,276 in November. The annual change there was a rise of 6.9%.
The largest annual rise was the East Midlands, where prices rose by 7.4% over the year to an average of £168,873.
The only annual fall was in the North, where prices fell 0.5% from £142,200 to £141,426 over the year. The monthly change was also a fall – 2.5%.
Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in Wales, which saw an increase over the month of 2.4%, bringing the average house price in the region to £117,097. This is 0.3% higher than this time last year.
The largest monthly decrease in price is in the North East, where the average price fell 3.1% to £96,179, which is 0.8% lower than a year ago. This is the largest annual drop in prices.
Annually, London’s prices rose by the most – 8.7% to an average of £390,720.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadametrics HPI data by region
The latest figures show that in September 2013, prices fell by 0.1% in both East Anglia  (down to £207,307) and the West Midlands (down to £174,361). Coincidentally, the annual increases were both 2.9%.
The largest monthly rise was 1.0%, in both Wales and the South West, where average prices are £152,779 and £228,622 respectively. These are 0.5% and 3.2% higher than last year.
All of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices in the year to September 2013: by far the largest was Greater London – up 7.9% to an average of £460,207. However, this is only 0.8% higher than August 2013.  Wales saw a the smallest rise in average house prices of 0.5% to £152,799 – this is 1.0% higher than last month.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is Carmarthenshire, where the average price is up by 2.3% to £103,075. However, this is 2.9% down on last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was Hartlepool, where prices fell by 4.0% to an average of £72,735. This is 8.6% lower than last year, the largest annual decrease.
The largest annual rise was once again Greater London, where prices rose by 8.7% to £390,720. This is 0.2% up on last month.
Eight counties / authorities saw no price movement in the month.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadametrics HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in September 2013 was Poole, where average prices rose by 6.3% to £291,504. The annual rise there was 5.6%.
Next is Rutland, where prices rose by 6.1% (18.3% annual rise) to an average of £306,755. However, this is a very small region, and therefore may not be considered a typical area.
The City of Derby saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 2.3% to £139,722. The annual rate was a fall of 1.0%.
Annually, the largest rise in average prices (setting aside Rutland – see above) was Bath & NE Somerset, where they rose by 11.7% to £328,091. This is a rise of 2.1% over the month. The largest annual decrease was Middlesbrough, where prices fell by 10.2% to £105,913. This is a drop of 1.4% over the month.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is shared by North Tyneside and Rochdale, where the average price is up by 2.6% in each, to £119,832 and £88,073 respectively.  North Tyneside’s is 2.9% higher than last year, but Rochdale’s is 1.6% lower.
The greatest monthly decrease in price is in Liverpool, where prices fell by 2.9% to an average of £89,364. This is 0.9% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise is in Birmingham, where prices rose by 4.4% to an average of £115,226.
Knowsley’s average price fell by 5.4% over the year to £98,391. This was the largest annual fall. The monthly drop here was 2.0%.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period from 13th October 2013 to 9th November 2013, only one boroughs saw a rise in  asking prices.
The only increase in asking prices was in Brent, where they rose by 1.0% to an average of £735,413. The annual rise was 0.8%.
The greatest decrease in asking prices was in Waltham Forest, where they fell by 6.8% in the month to £325,518. However, they rose by 9.5% over the year.
Annually, Hammersmith & Fulham’s rise was the largest of all the boroughs – asking prices rose by 19.1% over the year to £1,056,731.
Camden saw the only annual decrease, where average asking prices fell by 3.3% over the year to £965,614. The monthly change there was a fall of 4.8%.
Source: Rightmove

Acadametrics data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to September 2013, overall house prices in London increased by 0.8%. Kensington & Chelsea had the largest rise – 3.7% to £1,596,869, maintaining this borough’s status as the most expensive in which to buy a property. The annual rise there was 10.9%.
At the other end of the scale, the City of Westminster saw the greatest fall in prices both annually and monthly – 2.7% over the month, and 6.9% over the year.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £185,936, although this is 0.8% higher than August, and 4.9% higher than last year.
Comparing September 2012 to September 2013, Haringey saw the largest increase in house prices – up 20.2% to an average of £498.402. The monthly rise was 2.3%.
The borough with the greatest decrease over the year was the City of Westminster (see above). The only other boroughs to see a fall in the year was Kingston upon Thames and Hillingdon, where prices fell in both by 0.1% to £399,836 and £291,216 respectively.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is shared by Waltham Forest and Redbridge –  both boroughs saw a monthly price rise of 1.7%. The average price in Waltham Forest is now £282,746, which is 12.0% higher than last year.  The average price in Redbridge is now £309,788, which is 5.6% higher than last year.
The largest monthly drop was in Richmond-upon-Thames, where prices fell by 0.3% to £512,284. This is a rise of 7.9% over the year.
The largest annual price rise is in Lambeth, where prices rose by 13.1% to £421,403, which is 1.3% higher than last month.
The only annual decrease in price is once again in Newham, where prices fell by 0.8% to an average of £229,682. However, this is 0.5% higher than month.
Source: Land Registry

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for October 2013 (published 13th November 2013) says that  “Strong demand pushes sales expectations higher” and that  “the gap between demand and supply [.. ] is now at its greatest since May 2009”.
Once again, London and the South East saw the largest price rises over the month. The North saw the smallest rise in prices.
The North had the highest level of agreed sales in October, with every area seeing a rise, although East Anglia’s were the lowest.
Wales had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month – all regions saw a rise in this indicator, with East Anglia once again seeing the lowest of the regions..
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in the North, with only East Anglia, London and the South East seeing a decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising, although Semi-detached properties seem to be rising slower than the other types.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 9th November 2013, the average change over all property types was an increase of 4.0%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are higher than last year.

  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 6.7% to £193,730.
  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 6.1% to £214,011.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 4.7% to £361,465.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 4.0% to £205,971.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s October average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 3.1% in the year since October 2012. The average price is now £165,515.

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 4.0% to £156,681
  • Terraced properties rose by 2.8% to £124,771
  • Detached properties rose by 2.8% to £260,997
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 2..8% to £157,031.

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

New Mortgages granted – September Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 52,800 loans were made in September for house purchase, worth £8.4 billion. This is lower than August in number (13.7%) and in value (13.4%). However, these figures are up 20.5% and 27.3% (respectively) than last September’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 23,600, valued at £3.3 billion, which is down by 11.6% in number and 10.8% in value on last month. This is 34.1% higher in number and 50.0% higher in value, compared to last September’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £5.2 billion, and numbered 29.100. These figures are 15.7% lower than August’s in terms of number, and 13.3% lower in value.  These figures are up 11.1% in number and 18.2% in value on last September.
The number and value of remortgage loans rose in the month – 32,900 loans worth £4.7 billion in August. These figures are 20.1% higher than last month’s in terms of volume and 23.7% higher in value. and an increase of 36.0% in number and of 46.9% by value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – October Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that October’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £17.6 billion. This is 9% higher than September’s £16.2 billion, and a rise of 37% from last October’s figure of £12.9 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.3m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £112,727 by the end of September 2013.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.269 trillion at the end of September 2013. This is up from the previous September’s £1,264 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

Mortgage Arrears and Homes Repossessions
The number of UK mortgages in arrears has fallen slightly to 1.33% of all mortgages.
By the end of Q3 2013, 149,400 mortgages were in arrears, i.e. behind by more than 2.5% of the mortgage balance. This is down from 154,900 in Q2 2013 and 159,100 in Q3 2012.
Included in this figure are 80,800 mortgages in arrears by between 2.5% and 5%, 31,600 behind by between 5% and 7.5%, 15,000 in the bracket 7.5% to 10%, and 30,300 which are in arrears by more than 10% of the mortgage balance.
The rate of repossessions in the third quarter of 2013 was 0.06%, a slight fall from 0.07% the previous quarter. The number (7,200) is the lowest since quarterly records were started in 2008. Of these, 1,500 were buy-to-let mortgages.
Although buy-to-let mortgages account for over 13% of all mortgages, only 9% of mortgages in arrears are buy-to-let. However, the repossession rate in the sector is 0.10% as opposed to 0.07%.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s October Report, in August 2013, 74,767 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 10,302 in London. This represents a rise of 15% in England & Wales, and of 14% in London since last August’s figures, (65,014 and 9,007 respectively).
Compared to last August, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 544 to 699 – a rise of 28%, and in England & Wales it increased from 871 to 1,104 – a rise of 27%.
At the other end of the market (below £250k), the volume rose by 13% in England & Wales (from 46,395 last August to 52,464 this August), and it rose by less than 1% in London (from 3,229 to 3,239).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from May to August 2013 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 69,147. This is up 16.9% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 59,138 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
Hometrack compile sample data monthly from thousands of Estate Agents in all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales. The figures are weighted according to postcode, but not seasonally adjusted.
November’s figures (published 2nd December 2013) show that the average amount of time that a house is on the market has risen to 8.4 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 3.6 weeks in London to 14.3 weeks in the North East.
On average, 95.0% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 97.7% in Greater London, down to 92.3% in the North East.
45.8% of postcode districts reported a price increase in November, a rise from October’s 35.9%. 3.2% had a price decrease over the month, up from October’s 1.6%.
Source: Hometrack

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in January 2014.

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