Property Market Fact File – November 2013

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for a record period, i.e. since 05th March, 2009.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices. All indices show an increase in the month and over the past year.
This month the average house price in England ranges from 167k to 256k.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to August 2013, published by the Office for National Statistics on 15th October 2013, show that house prices increased by 3.8% over the year, to an average of £247k.
First-time buyers’s average house price paid in August was £185k. Over the year, this is an increase of 4.9%. Existing owners paid an average of £283k in August, an increase of 3.3% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £223k in August, which is the same as last August. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £248k, which is 4.0% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £167,063 as at the end of September 2013, according to the report published on 28th October 2013.
The Monthly change in September in England and Wales was a 1.5% rise.
The Annual change to September in England and Wales was a rise of 3.4%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of September 2013 was £170,733, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 3rd October 2013. House prices in September were 0.3% higher than in August, and the quarterly figure was up by 2.0%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 6.2% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 31st October 2013 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £173,678 during the month of October. This is an increase from September of 1.0%, and an annual rise of 5.8%.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s September survey (published 21st October 2013) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 8th September 2013 to 12th October 2013 was £252,418, a rise of 2.8% on the previous month. House asking prices are 3.8% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadametrics House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics’ September figures, published 11th October 2013, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £235,534 in the month. This is only a 0.5% increase from August, but a 3.8% rise since last September.
Source: Acadametrics Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the September 2013 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in September is then £165,868: 1.6% up on August 2013  and 4.1% up on September 2012.
In the months from April to July, the number of repossessions averaged 1,272 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,608 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to July 2013 of 28%. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the North East had 56% fewer repossession sales compared to last July, whereas Wales and Yorkshire & Humberside each had 11% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

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UK HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY

ONS House Price Index regional figures.
Figures for the year to August 2013, published by the Office for National Statistics on 15th October 2013, show that the average house price in England in August 2013 was £256k, £164k in Wales, £130k in Northern Ireland and £185k in Scotland.
Over the year to August 2013, England’s rise was 4.1% and Northern Ireland’s was 1.1%. Scotland’s fell by 0.7% but Wales’ figure rose by 1.0% over the year.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose over the year by 8.7%, followed by the East Midlands and the West Midlands which rose by 3.8% and 3.5% respectively. The only decrease was Scotland, which fell by 0.7%.
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s October survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 8th September 2013 to 12th October 2013 as £252,418.
The largest monthly increase was in Greater London, where asking prices rose by 10.2% over the month from £496,748 to £544,232. The annual change there was a rise of 13.8% – the largest annual increase.
The largest monthly decrease was in the West Midlands. Average prices there fell by 3.2% from £195,429 in September to £189,242 in October. The annual change there was a drop of 0.5%.
The largest annual decrease was in the North, where prices fell from £148,358 to £145,094 over the year. The monthly change was also a fall – 0.2%.
Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in the North East, which saw an increase over the month of 2.7%, bringing the average house price in the region to £101,262. This is 1.3% higher than this time last year.
The largest monthly decrease in price is once again in Wales, where the average price fell 0.4% to £114,589, which is 1.7% lower than a year ago. This is the only region to see an  annual drop in prices.
Annually, London’s prices rose by the most – 9.3% to an average of £393,462.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadametrics HPI data by region
The latest figures show that of the ten regions specified, nine had an increase in house prices in August 2013: by far the largest was Greater London – up 1.0% to an average of £456,586. This is 8.5% higher than last August. Wales saw a fall in average house prices of 0.2% to £150,016 – this is 0.9% lower than this time last year.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is Newport, Gwent, where the average price is up by 2.7% to £113,621. However, this is 0.1% down on last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 3.4% to an average of £67,007. This is 4.3% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise was once again Greater London, where prices rose by 9.3% to £393,462. This is 1.9% up on last month.
The largest annual drop was Hartlepool, which saw a fall of 9.0% on last year and a fall of 2.1% on last month. The average house price here is now £76,597.
Five counties / authorities saw no price movement in the month, and one – Middlesbrough –  saw no change from this time last year.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadametrics HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in August 2013 was Bath & NE Somerset, where the average house price rose by 4.7% to £321,019. This is 3.3% higher than a year ago.
The largest decrease was Kingston upon Hull, where there was a 3.2% drop to £92,771. This is a drop of 4.6% on last year.
Annually, the largest rise in average prices was once again in Bracknell Forest where they rose by 9.2% to £295,068. The largest decrease was in Carmarthenshire, where prices fell by 8.8% to £129,784.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Doncaster, where the average price is up by 2.0% to £96,005.  This is 4.1% higher than last year, which is the largest annual increase.
The greatest monthly decrease in price is in Bury, where prices fell by 2.0% to an average of £104,699. This is 3.6% lower than last year.
Rochdale’s average price fell by 5.3% over the year to £85,514. This was the largest annual decrease. The monthly drop was 0.5%.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period from 8th September 2013 to 12th October 2013, all boroughs saw a rise in  asking prices.
The largest increase in asking prices was in the City of Westminster, where they rose by 11.9% to an average of £1,602,980. The annual rise was 11.3%. Kensington & Chelsea and Hammersmith & Fulham both saw rises of 11.8% in the month
The smallest rise in asking prices was in Richmond-upon-Thames, where they rose by 2.5% in the month to £753,562. However, they rose by 12.4% over the year.
Annually, Hammersmith & Fulham’s rise was the largest of all the boroughs – asking prices rose by 27.0% over the year to £1,092,840.
Havering saw the smallest increase, where average asking prices rose by 4.3% over the year to £272,692. The monthly change there was a rise of 5.3%.
Source: Rightmove

Acadametrics data analysed by London Borough
Comparing August 2012 to August 2013, the City of London saw an increase of 31.8% in house prices to an average of £787.963. It must be emphasised that this area has very few transactions, and therefore cannot be regarding as typical of London as a whole.
Haringey had the next greatest increase in house prices – 19.3% to an average of £487,891.  The borough with the samllest increase over the year was Hillingdon (by 0.4% to £293,531). Greater London as a whole saw prices rise by 8.5% over the year.
Over the month to August 2013, overall house prices in London increased by 1.0%. Haringey saw the largest rise – 4.4%. In the City, they fell by 3.8%, but see caveat above
Kensington & Chelsea is still the most expensive borough at an average of £1,553,042, which is 1.3% up on last month, and 8.8% higher than last year.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £185,002, although this is 0.4% lower than July, but 3.8% higher than last year.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Merton –  the average price there is up by 1.7% to £380,656. This is 9.4% higher than last year.
The only monthly decrease in price is in Newham, where prices fell by 0.3% to an average of £225,738. This is 2.5% lower than last year, making Newham the only borough to see an annual fall in prices.
The largest annual price rise is in Hackney, where prices rose by 12.8% to £474,202, which is 1.2% higher than last month.
Source: Land Registry

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for September 2013 (published 8th October 2013) says that  “Headline price and price expectations reach their highest level in over 10 years” and that  “Continued growth in new buyer enquiries pushes 3 month sales expectations to a series high”.
Once again, London and the South East saw the largest price rises over the month and only the North saw a fall in prices.
The North-West had the highest level of agreed sales in September, with every area seeing a rise, although Wales’ were the lowest.
Scotland had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month – all regions saw a rise in this indicator, with East Anglia seeing the lowest of the regions.
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in the Yorkshire & Humberside region, and only East Anglia and the East Midlands saw a decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Average House Price by region – % below peak.
LSL Acadametrics September report shows that compared to the peak of February 2008, the South East has now exceeded that level by £1,000, along with Greater London (and England & Wales taken as a whole). Of the other regions, Wales has the lowest price comparatively speaking – its average house price is 11.9% below peak. The North is 11.3% below peak level, whereas East Anglia is only 2.2% below its highest level.
Source: Acadametrics Ltd

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of Flats, Apartments and Maisonettes are still rising faster than other types of property, although all types are on the rise.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
Rightmove have published figures showing National Asking Prices analysed by property type.
In the year to 12th October 2013, the average change over all property types was an increase of 3.8%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 11.3% to £220,539
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 8.9% to £196,492
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 6.5% to £372,274
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 5.4% to £207,581.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s September average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 3.4% in the year since September 2012. The average price is now £167,063.

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 5.7% to £161,221
  • Terraced properties rose by 3.0% to £126,210
  • Detached properties rose by 2.7% to £260,985
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 2.7% to £157,194.

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

Mortgage Lending by the Major UK Lenders
According to the latest quarterly publication from the Bank of England, (Trends in Lending October 2013), the major UK lenders comprising Banco Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Nationwide and Royal Bank of Scotland, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase was 58.5k in June, 60.9k in July and 62.2k in August . Remortgaging numbered 32.3k in June, 34.8k in July and 36.2k in August. The report states that mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in the quarter to the highest number since Feb 2008. Also, remortgaging reached its highest level for over 2½ years.
Source: Bank of England

New Mortgages granted – August Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 61,300 loans were made in August for house purchase, worth £9.7 billion. This is higher than July in number (6.8%) and in value (6.6%). These figures are up 15.4% and 19.8% (respectively) than last August’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 27,100, valued at £3.8 billion, which is up by 7.1% in number and 8.6% in value on last month. This is 32.8% higher in number and 46.2% higher in value, compared to last August’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £6.0 billion, and numbered 34.200. These figures are 6.9% higher than July’s in terms of number, and 7.1% higher in value.  These figures are up 4.6% in number and 9.1% in value on last August.
The number and value of remortgage loans fell in the month – 25,100 loans worth £3.5 billion in July. These figures are 7.0% lower than last month’s in terms of volume and 7.9% lower in value. However, this is an increase of 10.6% in number and of 16.7% by value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – September Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that September’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £16.2 billion. This is only slightly lower than August’s £16.4 billion, but a rise of 41% from last September’s figure of £11.5 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.3m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £112,640 by the end of August 2013.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.268 trillion at the end of August 2013. This is up from the previous August’s £1,264 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during August 2013, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £1.9 billion (14,900 loans). This is a slight decrease from July (15,200 loans worth £2.0 billion).
Over half of the buy-to-let loans were for house purchase: 7,900 loans worth £900 million – an increase of 3.9% in number, but the same in value as the previous month.
Loans for remortgaging totalled 6.900 loans worth £1.0 billion, a fall of 4.2% in number and 9.1% in value since July.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s September Report, in July 2013, 69,140 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 10,044 in London. This represents a rise of 17% in England & Wales, and of 16% in London since last July’s figures, (59,141 and 8,691 respectively).
Compared to last July, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 556 to 801 – a rise of 44%, and in England & Wales it increased from 852 to 1,143 – a rise of 34%.
At the other end of the market (below £250k), the volume rose by 15% in England & Wales (from 42,273 last July to 48,664 this July), and by 3% in London (from 3,237 to 3,133).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from April to July 2013 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 62,034. This is up on the same period a year ago, when the average was 53,698 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
October’s figures (published 28th October 2013) show that the average amount of time that a house is on the market has reversed its downward direction and risen to 8.3 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 4.2 weeks in London to 13.2 weeks in the North East.
On average, 95.2% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 97.2% in Greater London, down to 92.8% in Wales.
35.9% of postcode districts reported a price increase in October, a fall from September’s 40.9%. Only 1.6% had a price decrease over the month, down from September’s 2.2%.
Source: Hometrack

Home Builders Federation Key Statistics
Home Builders Federation’s latest Key Stats Report observes that England’s house building rates in 2012/13 are the lowest since 1923 – just 108,190 completions.  They say we need to build at least 220,000 homes a year until 2021 just to meet the expected demand.
The ratio of house price to salary has almost doubled over the past 40 years – the price of the average house is now seven times that of the average salary.
There have been 2,291 home purchases completed under the New Buy Scheme as of 31st March 2013.
Source: HBF

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in December.

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