Property Market Fact File – October 2013

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for a record period, i.e. since 05th March, 2009.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES

Some show actual prices and others show asking prices. This month the average house price in England ranges from 164k to 255k.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to July 2013, published by the Office for National Statistics on 17th September 2013, show that house prices increased by 3.3% over the year, to an average of £245k..
The average house price in England in July 2013 was £255k, £160k in Wales, £132k in Northern Ireland and £182k in Scotland.
Over the year to July 2013, England’s rise was 3.7% and Northern Ireland’s was 1.8%. Scotland’s fell by 2.0% and Wales’ figure fell by 0.7% over the year.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose over the year by 9.7%, followed by the South East and the East Midlands which rose by 2.6% and 2.4% respectively. The only decreases were the North East and the North West, which fell by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively.
First-time buyers’s average house price paid in July was £183k. Over the year, this is an increase of 4.0%. Existing owners paid an average of £282k in July, an increase of 3.0% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £221k in July, which is much the same as last July. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £247k, which is 3.5% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £164,654 as at the end of August 2013, according to the report published on 29th September 2013.
The Monthly change in August in England and Wales was a 0.1% rise.
The Annual change to August in England and Wales was a rise of 1.3%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of August 2013 was £170,231, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 6th September 2013. House prices in August were 0.4% higher than in July, and the quarterly figure was up by 2.1%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 5.4% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 27th September 2013 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £172,127 during the month of September. This is an increase from August of 0.9%, and an annual rise of 5.0%.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s September survey (published 16th September 2013) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 11th August to 7th September 2013 was £245,495, a drop of 1.5% on the previous month. House asking prices are 4.5% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadametrics House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics’ August figures, published 13th September 2013, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £233,776 in the month. This is only a 0.4% increase from July, but a 3.2% rise since last August.
Source: Acadametrics Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the August 2013 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in June is then £163,462: 0.2% up on May 2013  and 2.0% up on June 2012.
In the months from March to June, the number of repossessions averaged 1,336 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,693 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to June 2013 of 21%. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, Wales had 37% fewer repossession sales compared to last June, whereas the South East had 15% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY ACROSS ENGLAND AND WALES

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s September survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 11th August to 7th September 2013.
The only monthly increase was in West Midlands, where asking prices rose by 1.0% over the month from £193,474 to £195,429. The annual change there was a rise of 6.8%.
The largest monthly decrease was in the North. Average prices there fell by 3.1% from £149,362 in August to £144,768 in September. The annual change there was not statistically significant.
The largest annual increase was in London, up 8.2% from £456,237 in September 2012 to £493,748 in September this year. The monthly change was a drop of 1.5%.
The only annual decrease was in Yorkshire & Humberside, where prices fell from £152,788 to £150,829 over the year. The monthly change was also a fall – 2.2%.
Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in the North West, which saw an increase over the month of 1.3%, bringing the average house price in the region to £109,210. This is 1.5% lower than this time last year.
The largest monthly decrease in price is once again in Wales, where the average price fell 2.1% to £113,357, which is 1.8% lower than a year ago.
Annually, London’s prices rose by the most – 7.1% to an average of £389,066, whereas house prices in the North East fell by 2.2% to £98,469.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadametrics HPI data by region
The latest figures show that of the ten regions specified, eight had an increase in house prices in July 2013 – by far the largest was Greater London (7.0% to £452,821).
Wales saw the greatest fall in the month –  down 1.5% (to £149,769). The other region to have seen a fall in house prices is the South West – down 0.1% to £223, 509.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is Rutland, where the average price is up by 2.5% to £206,985. However, this is 2.9% down on last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was once again Blaenau Gwent, where prices fell by 5.9% to an average of £60,591. This is (coincidentally) 5.9% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 7.1% to £389,066. This is 1.2% up on last month.
The largest annual drop was Gwynedd, which saw a fall of 7.4% on last year and a fall of 3.0% on last month. The average house price here is now £131,076.
Six counties / authorities saw no price movement in the month, and two saw no change from this time last year.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadametrics HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authorities with the largest increase in house prices between July 2012 and July 2013 (excluding Greater London) were Bracknell Forest, where the average house price rose by 7.5% to £293,817, and Slough, where the average price rose by 6.7% to £219,340.
The largest decrease was Poole, where there was a 9.5% drop (to £255,529).
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Salford, where the average price is up by 2.4% to £89,166.  This is 2.4% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price is in Tameside, where prices fell by 3.0% to an average of £88,735. This is 4.2% lower than last year.
Newcastle upon Tyne saw the largest annual increase – up by 4.3% to £119,412. This is 1.2% higher than last month.
Wigan had the greatest annual decrease – 4.7% down on last August. At £89,119, this is 0.9% higher than last month.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period from 11th August to 7th September 2013, the largest increase in asking prices was in Croydon, where they rose by 2.3% to an average of £318,921. The annual rise was 9.9%.
The largest drop in asking prices was in Westminster, where they fell by 7.4% in the month to £1,432,897. However, they rose by 6.2% over the year.
Annually, Islington’s rise was the largest of all the boroughs – asking prices rose by 16.7% over the year to £729,278. The monthly figure was a drop of 0.8%.
Once again, Barking & Dagenham saw the only decrease, where average asking prices have fallen by 0.8% over the year to £218,242. However, the monthly change there was a rise of 1.1%.
Source: Rightmove

Acadametrics data analysed by London Borough
Comparing July 2012 to July 2013, the City of London saw an increase of 43.5% in house prices. It must be emphasised that this area has very few transactions, and therefore cannot be regarding as typical of London as a whole.
Merton had the next greatest increase in house prices – 15.4% to an average of £481,337.
Only one borough saw a decrease over the year – Hillingdon (by 3.0% to £290,941).
Over the month to July 2013, overall house prices in London increased by 0.7%. In the City, they rose by 6.8%, but see caveat above. The next was Merton with an increase of  3.5%. The City of Westminster saw the greatest fall in prices –  down 2.5% to £1,199,757.
Kensington & Chelsea is still the most expensive borough at an average of £1,519,893, which is 0.7% up on last month, but 9.0% higher than last July.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £184,199, although this is 0.7% lower than June, but 3.0% higher than last year.
Source: Acadametrics

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Hackney –  the average price there is up by 2.4% to £468,165. This is 11.9% higher than last year, making it the largest annual increase.
The greatest monthly decrease in price is in Tower Hamlets, where prices fell by 0.6% to an average of £373,369. However, this is 3.1% higher than last year.
The only borough to see an annual fall in prices is Newham, where prices dropped by 1.7% to £227,692. The monthly change was a drop of 0.4%.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Nationwide’s UK House Prices Index report for Q3 2013.
In Quarter 3 of 2013, the average UK house price has been calculated (after seasonal adjustment) as £170,918 by the Nationwide. This is 2.2% higher than Q2, and gives a figure of a 4.3% increase since the same quarter last year. For the eighth successive quarter, the most expensive region in the UK to buy a property is, not surprisingly, London, and the least expensive region is once again Northern Ireland.
House prices in Northern Ireland are now 0.9% up on last year, and 1.1% up on last quarter, standing at an average of £108,671. The City of Belfast still has the highest prices – at £154,330, the annual rate is a 3% rise.
London had an increase in house prices of 10.0% on last year, and a 4.0% increase on last quarter. The average price is £331,338. Westminster is still the most expensive borough, with average prices (£786,111) more than three and a half times the average price in the cheapest borough, Barking & Dagenham (£204,032).
House prices in England have risen 2.6% over the quarter, and 5.2% over the year. The average price in England is £200,165. The North is the cheapest place in England to buy a property at the moment.
Wales’ quarterly change was a rise of 2.6%, and the annual rise was 3.6%. The average price in Wales is now £137,169, with Cardiff remaining the most expensive area – the average house price in Cardiff being £213,171.
Scotland’s house prices rose 1.5% on last quarter, and 2.2% from last year, to an  average price of £135,192. Aberdeen City has overtaken Edinburgh as the most expensive place to buy a house in Scotland – the average price there is £238,100.
On an annual basis, looking at towns and cities within England, Manchester performed best, with a house price increase of 10% since last year. The average price of a house in Manchester is £193,753.
The worst performance in England was Carlisle, where prices dropped by 3% in the year. House prices here average £133,833.
Compared to 10 years ago, the average house price in Aberdeenshire & Moray has risen by 116% to £178,883. The next highest rise is Westminster in London (114%). However. in the South East of Northern Ireland,  prices are only 9% higher than they were 10 years ago.
Source: Nationwide

RICS Survey Overview
The RICS Residential Market Survey for August 2013 (published 10th September 2013) says that the  “Sales market indicators are strengthening” although the  “Rental picture remains tight”.
Once again, London and the South East saw the largest price rises, although the East Midlands wasn’t far behind. Only the North saw a fall in prices.
However, the North had the highest level of agreed sales in August, with every area seeing a rise, albeit London’s, Wales’ and East Midlands’ were the lowest.
The North also had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month – all regions saw a rise in this indicator, with Yorkshire & Humberside seeing the lowest of the regions..
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in the South West, although no region saw a decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of Flats, Apartments and Maisonettes has risen faster than other types of property. N.B. The Halifax’s data is quarterly, and includes bungalows as a separate category.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
Rightmove have published figures showing National Asking Prices analysed by property type.
In the year to 7th September 2013, the average change over all property types was an increase of 4.5%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are up on last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 6.3% to £205,279
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 5.5% to £188,777
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 4.6% to £206,639.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 3.3% to £359,051

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s August average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 1.3% in the year since August 2012. The average price is now £164,654.

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 2.2% to £155,982
  • Detached properties rose by 1.2% to £258,502
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 1.1% to £155,800.
  • Terraced properties rose by 0.7% to £124,580

Source: Land Registry

Halifax’ Average Prices by Property Type
The Halifax quarterly average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 8.2% in the second quarter of 2013. The average price is now £189,145.
Over the quarter:

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 15.1% to £180,799
  • Terraced properties rose by 8.3% to £160,133
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 6.0% to £171,862.
  • Bungalows rose by 4.6% to £192,237
  • Detached properties rose by 4.3% to £286,175

Source: Halifax

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

New Mortgages granted – July Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 57,400 loans were made in July for house purchase, worth £9.1 billion. This is higher than June in number (8.9%) and in value (12.3%). These figures are up 21.1% and 23.0% (respectively) than last July’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 25,300, valued at £3.5 billion, which is up by 5.4% in number and 6.1% in value on last month. This is 40.6% higher in number and 45.8% higher in value, compared to last July’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £5.6 billion, and numbered 32,000. These figures are 11.9% higher than June’s in terms of number, and 16.7% higher in value.  These figures are up 9.2% in number and 12.0% in value on last July.
The number and value of remortgage loans rise in the month – 27,000 loans worth £3.8 billion in July. These figures are 5.5% higher than last month’s in terms of volume and 8.6% higher in value. This is an increase of 7.6% in number and of 15.2% by value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – August Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that August’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £16.6 billion. This is only slightly lower than July’s £16.7 billion, and a rise of 28% from last August’s figure of £13 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.3m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £112,604 by the end of July 2013.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.268 trillion at the end of July 2013. This is up from the previous July’s £1,264 billion.
Source: Credit Action

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during July 2013, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2 billion (15,200 loans). This is an increase from June of 11% in vale and 12% in number.
Around half of the buy-to-let loans were for house purchase: 7,600 loans worth £900 million – an increase of 6.7% in number and 12.5% in value over the previous month.
Loans for remortgaging totalled 7,200 loans worth £1.1 billion, an increase of 13.4% in number and 23.6% in value.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s August Report, in June 2013, 60,168 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 7,893 in London. This represents a rise of 1% in England & Wales, and a fall of 2% in London since last June’s figures, (59,854 and 8,084 respectively).
Compared to last June, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 448 to 554 – a rise of 24%, and in England & Wales it increased from 679 to 788 – a rise of 16%.
At the other end of the market (below £250k), the volume fell by 0.5% in England & Wales (from 43,949 last June to 43,713 this June), and by 10% in London (from 2,953 to 2,647).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from March to June 2013 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 57,205. This is up on the same period a year ago, when the average was 54,246 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
September’s figures (published 30th September 2013) show that the average amount of time that a house is on the market is still dropping and has reached 7.9 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 3.8 weeks in London to 12.2 weeks in the North East.
On average, 94.7% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 96.5% in Greater London, down to 92.9% in the East Midlands.
40.9% of postcode districts reported a price increase in September, a rise from August’s 32.6%. Only 2.2% had a price decrease over the month, down from August’s 1.7%.
Source: Hometrack

NHBC figures for new home registrations
NHBC have released figures for new homes registered for the 8 months to the end of August 2013.
90,730 new homes have been registered since the beginning of this year, compared to 72,740 in the same period last year.
In August, the figure was 9,769, an increase of 2.3% on last August’s 9,553.
The figure for the quarter June to August 2013 shows a 15% increase over 2012, from 29,272 to 33,593. Regional analysis shows that only the South West saw a fall in registrations in this three month period: 3,284 in 2013 compared to 3,737 in 2012.
However, comparing Q2 2013 with Q2 2012, all regions except Wales saw a rise in new home registrations.
Source: NHBC

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in November.

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