Property Market Fact File – November 2011

Including Editor’s note on the UK GDP rise

Bank Lending Rate
It has been confirmed that the Bank of England Monetary Committee have decided that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for a record period, i.e. since 05th March, 2009.
Source: Bank of England

Mortgage Lending by the Major UK Lenders
According to initial data from the major UK lenders, (which comprises Banco Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Nationwide and Royal Bank of Scotland), total mortgage approvals for house purchase fell slightly, from £5.9 billion in August to £5.7 billion in September. Remortgaging rose from £3.6 billion in August to £3.9 billion in September.
Source: Bank of England

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average Price of a property in England and Wales is now £162,109 as at the end of September 2011.
The Monthly change in September in England and Wales was a reduction of 0.3%.
The Annual change to September in England and Wales was a reduction of 2.6%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures
The average price of a house by the end of September 2011 was £161,132, according to the Halifax House Price Index. House prices in September were 0.5% lower than in August. However, the quarterly figure showed a 0.1% rise. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 2.3% lower than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 1st November showed that the average cost of a home in the UK was £165,650 during the month of September. After seasonal adjustment, this is a 0.4% rise from September, and the annual rate is up by 0.8%.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s October survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 11th September to 8th October 2011 was £239,672, an increase of 2.8% on the previous month. House asking prices are 1.2% higher than a year ago, although this masks a North/South divide – average asking prices in the south have risen by 4.7% whereas in the North there was a drop of 0.7%.
Source: Rightmove

RICS survey overview
The RICS Housing Market Survey for September underlines some continuing issues. Both supply and demand for property have stayed low, and prices are still falling in every region of the UK except London. The East and West Midlands saw the largest falls in house prices. East Anglia had the largest increase in newly agreed sales, but the South East had the highest level of new buyer enquiries during the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

New Mortgages granted – August figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that in August, 34,100 loans were made for house purchase, worth £4.2 billion. This is more than 30% higher than last August, both in terms of value and volume. First-time buyer loans totalled 19,000 (valued at £2.4 billion) and 33,000 remortgage loans were made, worth £5.5 billion. These figures are up slightly on last August.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – September estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that September’s estimated figures for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £12.9 billion. This is 2% lower than August’s figure of £13.1 billion, but a rise of 4% since last September.
The third quarter of 2011 saw a 15% increase on the second quarter (£38.6 billion from £33.5 billion), which is a 2% increase on the third quarter of 2010.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
The largest increase in Rightmove’s October survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 11th September to 8th October 2011 is in Greater London, where the average asking price is up by 5.2% to £450,210. This is 7.5% higher than a year ago, and the largest regional annual increase.
The largest decrease in asking prices by Rightmove registered estate agents in the period is the East Midlands, where the average asking price is down 3.1% to £159,341, which is 5.5% lower than a year ago and is the largest regional annual decrease.
Source: Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The highest monthly price increase is 1.0% in the North West of England, where the average asking price is now £115,057. However, this is 2.7% lower than a year ago.
The largest monthly decrease in price is the North East, where the average price is down 3.9% to £100,616, which is 8.2% lower than a year ago. This is the largest regional annual decrease.
Once again, Greater London is the only region to have an annual increase in house prices – at £349,026, it is 2.7% higher than a year ago
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to October 2011, the average change over all property types is an increase of 2.3%. Flats’ and apartments’ prices are still performing well, at a 3.7% increase over the year. At the other end of the scale, detached properties’ asking prices decreased by 1.5%. Inbetween, terraced properties decreased by 0.3% over the year and semi-detached properties have gone down by 0.6%.
Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s September average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices for all types of property have fallen by 2.6% in the year since September 2010. The average price is now £162,109.
Terraced properties have fared worst, falling by 3.4% to £122,494. Detached properties didn’t do as badly as the other types, falling by 1.5% to an average of £257,187. Semi-detached properties fell by 2.9% to £153,059, and Flats & Maisonette properties were also down by 2.4% to £152,286.
Source: Land Registry

Staying Local?
Reallymoving’s Quarter 2 Migration Monitor, published on 28th September 2011, shows more people are moving out of major towns and cities than move in. The popularity of the South West of England continues, with more people moving in than out, in particular Truro in Cornwall, and Torquay in Devon. The least popular places (outside London) are York, Halifax, Ilford and Sunderland, where more people move out than in. People who live in Belfast or Newcastle were least likely to move, and movers in Oxford and St Albans were the most active, in terms of the number of moves per capita.
Source: Really Moving .com

Editor’s Note

Special note must go to the seemingly unnoticed increase in Britain’s growth figures. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) rose by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2011. This is significantly better than the 0.1% growth registered in the second quarter, which was hindered by fewer working days (The Royal Wedding etc.) and supply disruption through the Japanese Tsunami.

Analysts are, on the whole, still remaining conservative about these figures, claiming that the underlying picture is still weak. In fact, our analysts on the team have forecasted a rise from recession back to the previous GDP peak in 2008 over a long six year period at the current rate.

But regardless of this conservatism, the new statistics do represent progress and that, despite market turmoil in the Eurozone and low investor confidence, the UK is picking itself up and moving forward.

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in early December.

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