Welcome to the February 2019 Property Market fact file – a round-up of the latest property market news, collating survey data, statistics, trends and information about the property market. (All figures below are the most recently available data.)
UK House Price Index
Data source: Land Registry
UK average house price = £230,776, 0.2% change in the month, 2.5% up in the year. Monthly index (where January 2015 = 100) is 121.0
House price growth was at its lowest in December since July 2013, when it was 2.3%. The asking prices of houses in Wales and the West Midlands regions increased by 5.2% in the year. The North East saw the lowest annual house price growth, which fell by -1.0% in the year. London followed, with house prices fell for the sixth consecutive month to -0.6% in the year.
The last quarter of 2018 saw a fall for the sixth consecutive month in the number of houses coming onto the market, as well as a fall in demand, with new buyer enquiries falling for the fifth consecutive month. Mainly in southern England, housing transactions had been postponed until after Brexit. Outside London, demand for new build houses remained strong with housebuilders offering incentives to finalise house sales.
UK average house price = £229,729, up 2.2% in the month, down -0.4% in the quarter, up 1.3% in the year.
Average house prices in December brought the year’s figures up from 0.3% in November, finishing at 1.3% growth. Final quarter average house prices were -0.4% lower than the preceding quarter.
A continued period of stability is forecast for 2019, with house prices slightly stronger than last year, although the uncertainties of Brexit make the outcome uncertain. The ongoing shortage of houses will continue to buoy the market and support high prices.
England and Wales average house asking price = £298,734, up 0.4% in the month and up 0.4% in the year.
Property prices recorded the smallest rise since January 2012 for the time of year. In contrast, visitors to the Rightmove website increased by 5% in the first two weeks of January 2019, compared to a year ago, showing that homeowners are still considering a house move.
UK average house price = £211,966, 0.3% change in the month and up 0.1% in the year.
The near-static house price growth follows a subdued December. Weak consumer confidence follows a decline in new house buyer enquiries towards the end of 2018. Recent months have seen a modest shift in favour of house buyers.
LSL / Acadata
Average England and Wales house price = £306,647, up 0.3% in the month, up 0.6% in the year.
Annual house price growth was at the lowest since April 2012 at 0.6% and in real terms are falling when compared to CPI inflation which stood at 2.2%.
Political uncertainty has led to both buyers’ and sellers’ reluctance to approach the property market, although a lack of demand would in turn lead to more affordable house prices which would benefit first time buyers, in particular.
HM Revenue & Customs
The provisional number of UK residential property transaction completions (over £40,000) for December 2018 was 102,330, representing a decrease of -0.1% between Nov-Dec 2018, and the seasonally adjusted figure is 3.6% higher than December 2017. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was -11.5% higher than November 2018, and -2.9% lower than December 2017.
The number of non-residential property transactions increased by 5.5% between Nov-Dec 2018. This is 5.4% higher than December 2017.
Land Registry Price Paid Data
Of the 88,785 residential sales received for registration in December, the most expensive residential property sale was a terraced property in the Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, London, which sold for £11,000,000. There were 451 residential property sales valued at £1m or more in England and Wales, 270 of which were in Greater London.
The cheapest residential sale was a terraced property in Peterlee, County Durham, which sold for £17,500.
REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES
|UK HPI Regional figures (all percentages are positive unless indicated otherwise)|
|December 2018||Average price GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|Northern Ireland (Quarter 4 – 2018)||£136,669||1.3%||5.5%|
|East of England||£289,602||-1.1%||0.2%|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||£165,119||2.0%||4.2%|
UK HPI Average monthly price by property type
|Property type||December 2018 GBP||December 2017 GBP||Difference|
|Flat or maisonette||£203,578||£203,168||0.2%|
Rightmove regional figures
|January 2019||Average price GBP||Monthly change %||Annual change %|
|East of England||344,479||0.8||0.5|
|Yorkshire & Humberside||189,545||1.3||5.3|
Nationwide regional figures
|Q4: 3 months to December 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Annual % change (this quarter)||Annual % change (previous quarter)|
|Yorks & H’side||£157,436||3.7%||5.8%|
Focus on London – Best and Worst (-) annual performers according to:
|Rightmove January 2019||Average Price (£) GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|LCL Acadata December 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|Kensington & Chelsea||1,772,141||1.9%||-21.2%|
|City of Westminster||1,450,283||1.3%||-24.8%|
RICS Survey Overview
The RICS Residential Market Survey for January showed the letting market faring better than the house buying and selling market.
The number of enquiries from prospective house buyers fell over the month, as did new sales instructions and completions. Expectations over the next three months are downbeat although for the next year are modestly positive.
London and the South East, followed by East Anglia and the South West, showed strong price growth in the last six years which has affected affordability and is now hampering demand.
Tenants demand has risen modestly in the last three months, although landlord instructions have decreased. Rents are expected to rise by around 2% over the next year, with growth expected to rise by 3% per annum.
Rightmove.co.uk is the UK’s leading property website, displaying details of homes for sale or rent to the largest online audience. It is consistently ranked the number one property website in the UK (source: Experian Hitwise). It has around 90% of all properties for sale and at any time displays a stock of over one million properties to buy or rent, worth around £270 billion. The Rightmove.co.uk site attracts over 130 million visits from home movers each month with time on site averaging over one billion minutes per month (Rightmove data, 2017).
LSL Acad E&W HPI is derived from Land Registry (LR) house price data, seasonally and mix adjusted by property type. © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry. The prices are smoothed to show underlying trends. LSL Acad E&W HPI includes cash purchase prices and is the only index based upon the complete, factual house price data for England & Wales, as opposed to a sample.
UK HPI: Monthly house price inflation, calculated using data from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. This replaces the previous House Price Indices separately published by Office of National Statistics and Land Registry.
All figures within this article are correct at the time of going to press, and are reproduced in good faith. No responsibility will be taken for any decisions taken based on the information contained herein. Always seek professional advice.
Next Monthly Market Fact File due in March.