Welcome to the January 2019 Property Market fact file – a round-up of the latest property market news, collating survey data, statistics, trends and information about the property market. (All figures below are the most recently available data.)
UK House Price Index
Data source: Land Registry
UK average house price = £231,095, -0.2% change in the month, 2.7% up in the year. Monthly index (where January 2015 = 100) is 121.2
October saw the lowest growth since July 2013, when house prices increased by 2.3%.
The North West saw the fastest house price growth, up by 4.9% in October. London’s house prices fell by -1.7%, probably due to regulatory and tax changes and also lower net migration from the EU.
Lower priced help to buy new build houses are still supported by the Help to Buy Scheme, but otherwise the housing market has softened, with fewer property transactions and weaker price inflation.
UK average house price = £229,729, up 2.2% in the month, down -0.4% in the quarter, up 1.3% in the year.
Average house prices in December brought the year’s figures up from 0.3% in November, finishing at 1.3% growth. Final quarter average house prices were -0.4% lower than the preceding quarter.
A continued period of stability is forecast for 2019, with house prices slightly stronger than last year, although the uncertainties of Brexit make the outcome uncertain. The ongoing shortage of houses will continue to buoy the market and support high prices.
England and Wales average house asking price = £297,527, down -1.5% in the month and up 0.7% in the year.
Average new seller asking prices have dropped £10,000 since October, the biggest fall between two consecutive months recorded since 2012. Agreed sales dropped by -2.1% compared with a year ago, showing signs that cheaper prices may be tempting buyers.
The average price paid by first time buyers increased by 1.3% in 2018.
UK average house price = £212,281, -0.7% change in the month and up 0.5% in the year.
Nationwide’s December index recorded the slowest annual house price growth since February 2013.
LSL / Acadata
Average England and Wales house price = £305,522, up 0.2% in the month, up 0.9% in the year.
Average house prices have declined since August 2018 remaining below inflation and at the lowest level since April 2012. November saw an increase in the number of housing transactions to the highest level for the month in three years.
There has been a significant reduction in the number of buy to let mortgages (down -13%) and a marginal increase in the number of first time buyers (up 0.4%)
HM Revenue & Customs
The provisional number of UK residential property transaction completions (over £40,000) for November 2018 was 100,930, representing an increase of 0.1% between Oct-Nov 2018, and the seasonally adjusted figure is 0.5% lower than November 2017. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 5.0% higher than October 2018, and 7.5% higher than November 2017.
The number of non-residential property transactions increased by 0.8% between Oct-Nov 2018. This is 4.5% higher than November 2017.
Land Registry Price Paid Data
Of the 102,703 residential sales received for registration in November, the most expensive residential property sale was a terraced property in the City of Westminster, London, which sold for £38,822,000. There were 567 residential property sales valued at £1m or more in England and Wales, 336 of which were in Greater London.
The cheapest residential sale was a terraced property in Burnley, Lancashire, which sold for £16,700.
REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES
|UK HPI Regional figures (all percentages are positive unless indicated otherwise)|
|October 2018||Average price GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|Northern Ireland (Quarter 3 – 2018)||£135,060||2.3%||4.8%|
|East of England||£294,548||0.5%||2.1%|
|West Midlands Region||£196,073||-1.1%||3.8%|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||£163,858||1.0%||4.4%|
UK HPI Average monthly price by property type
|Property type||October 2018 GBP||October 2017 GBP||Difference|
|Flat or maisonette||£205,875||£203,414||1.2%|
Rightmove regional figures
|December 2018||Average price GBP||Monthly change %||Annual change %|
|East of England||341,818||-2.6||-0.7|
|Yorkshire & Humberside||187,143||0.1||4.8|
Nationwide regional figures
|Q4: 3 months to December 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Annual % change (this quarter)||Annual % change (previous quarter)|
|Yorks & H’side||£157,436||3.7%||5.8%|
Focus on London – Best and Worst (-) annual performers according to:
|Rightmove December 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Monthly change %||Annual change %|
|LCL Acadata November 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|City of Westminster||1,722,840||-0.7%||-16.5%|
RICS Survey Overview
The RICS Residential Market Survey for November reflected a fall in house prices nationally and weaker new buyer demand and fewer new instructions.
November showed another record low number of average stock on estate agents’ books, at an average 42.1 properties. Sales completions now take an average 19 weeks.
Lack of fresh housing stock and affordability, together with political uncertainties continue to hinder housing market activity.
The lettings market saw another month of modest improvement in demand although landlord instructions continue to fall. Accordingly, rents are predicted to rise and rental growth is expected to reach 3.1% per annum for the next five years.
Rightmove.co.uk is the UK’s leading property website, displaying details of homes for sale or rent to the largest online audience. It is consistently ranked the number one property website in the UK (source: Experian Hitwise). It has around 90% of all properties for sale and at any time displays a stock of over one million properties to buy or rent, worth around £270 billion. The Rightmove.co.uk site attracts over 130 million visits from home movers each month with time on site averaging over one billion minutes per month (Rightmove data, 2017).
LSL Acad E&W HPI is derived from Land Registry (LR) house price data, seasonally and mix adjusted by property type. © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry. The prices are smoothed to show underlying trends. LSL Acad E&W HPI includes cash purchase prices and is the only index based upon the complete, factual house price data for England & Wales, as opposed to a sample.
UK HPI: Monthly house price inflation, calculated using data from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. This replaces the previous House Price Indices separately published by Office of National Statistics and Land Registry.
All figures within this article are correct at the time of going to press, and are reproduced in good faith. No responsibility will be taken for any decisions taken based on the information contained herein. Always seek professional advice.
Next Monthly Market Fact File due in February.