October 2018 Property Market factfile

Welcome to the October 2018 Property Market fact file – a round-up of the latest property market news, collating survey data, statistics, trends and information about the property market. (All figures below are the most recently available data.)

UK House Price Index
Data source: Land Registry
UK average house price = £232,797,  up 3.2% in the month, up 0.2% in the year. Monthly index (where January 2015 = 100) is 122.1

The East and West Midlands saw the greatest house price growth in the year to August 2018, at 6.5% and 5.1%. London’s annual growth has been close to 0% over the last six months.

Fewer housing transactions and weaker prices indicate a softening in the housing market, although the Bank of England showed a higher than average increase in mortgage approvals over six months, although lower by -0.4% compared to August 2018.

Halifax
UK average house price = £225,995, down -1.4% in the month, up 1.8% in the quarter, up 2.5% in the year.

Mortgage approvals and completed house sales are stable, while wage growth has helped household finances. Annual growth is close to forecast, and the  low house supply continues to buoy prices.

Rightmove
England and Wales average house asking price = £304,061, up 0.7% in the month and up 1.2% in the year.

Affordability was key to a stronger housing market in Wales, East Midlands, West Midlands and Yorkshire & the Humber, where annual price rises were in excess of 4%.

London prices saw signs of improvement at the top end, with a 6% increase in the number of £650,000-plus homes sold, compared to August 2017.

Nationwide
UK average house price = £214,922, up 0.3% in the month and up 2.0% in the year.

Nationwide’s September index showed little change in the demand or supply markets, with the expectation of around 1% house price growth in 2018.

Although London prices fell for the fifth consecutive quarter, house prices were only -3% below the previous record high of Q1 2017 and 50% higher than 2007.

The strongest performing region of England and the UK was Yorkshire & Humberside, at 5.8% increase in the year, followed by the East Midlands at 4.8%.

LSL / Acadata
Average England and Wales house price = £303,199,  0.1% change in the month, up 1.8% in the year.

There was a modest price rise in August, the first positive month for house price growth since March, although the annual increase is well below the inflation rate of 2.3% CPI.

London prices saw an annual increase of 3.6% for the three months centred on July, the first time the region has topped the league in 26 months. The South East was bottom of the scale at 0.2% annual growth.

The number of housing transactions is at its lowest level since 2013, and transactions in Jan-Aug 2018 4% lower than the same period last year.

HM Revenue & Customs
The provisional number of UK residential property transaction completions (over £40,000) for August 2018 was 99,120, representing an increase of 1.3% between July-Aug 2018, and the seasonally adjusted figure is 2.6% lower than August 2017. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 12.9% higher than July 2018, and 3.9% higher than August 2017.

The number of non-residential property transactions increased by 2.6% between July-August 2018. This is -1.9% lower than August 2017.

Land Registry Price Paid Data
Of the 99,765 residential sales received for registration in August, the most expensive residential property sale was a detached property in the Royal Borough of Camden, London, which sold for £11,450,000. There were 557 residential property sales valued at £1m or more in England and Wales, 317 of which were in Greater London.

The cheapest residential sale was a terraced property in Shilden, County Durham which sold for £21,000.

REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES

UK HPI Regional figures (all percentages are positive unless indicated otherwise)
August 2018 Average price GBP Monthly change Annual change
England £249,748 0.2% 2.9%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 2 – 2018) £132,795 -1.0% 4.4%
Scotland £153,309 0.3% 4.1%
Wales £162,374 1.9% 6.2%
East Midlands £194,718 1.5% 6.5%
East of England £292,107 -1.1% 1.6%
London £486,304 -0.5% -0.2%
North East £133,538 1.4% 2.9%
North West £163,487 0.0% 3.3%
South East £329,264 0.1% 1.9%
South West £257,659 -0.4% 2.9%
West Midlands Region £199,000 0.5% 5.1%
Yorkshire and The Humber £163,964 1.2% 3.7%

UK HPI Average monthly price by property type

Property type August 2018 GBP August 2017 GBP Difference
Detached £350,354 £338,099 3.6%
Semi-detached £220,736 £210,739 4.7%
Terraced £188,889 £182,873 3.3%
Flat or maisonette £207,512 £206,009 0.7%
All £232,797 £225,572 3.2%

Rightmove regional figures

August 2018 Average price GBP Monthly change % Annual change %
Greater London 616,501 1.2 -0.5
South East 405,304 0.7 -0.1
South West 303,886 -1.1 2.2
East of England 349,997 -0.6 0.3
West Midlands 225,383 0.0 4.5
East Midlands 224,707 0.7 4.7
North West 192,014 0.1 2.4
Wales 194,370 -1.0 4.6
Yorkshire & Humberside 190,316 0.7 4.0
North East 148,085 -0.5 1.1

Nationwide regional figures

Q3: 3 months to Sept 2018 Average Price (£) GBP Annual % change (this quarter) Annual % change (previous quarter)
Yorks & Humberside £160,263 5.8% 2.1%
East Midlands £186,414 4.8% 4.4%
N Ireland £139,374 4.3% 2.1%
West Midlands £190,607 4.1% 4.3%
North West £162,596 4.1% 3.0%
Wales £154,881 3.3% 4.0%
East Anglia £228,690 3.0% 2.5%
Scotland £149,161 2.1% 3.1%
South West £245,434 1.9% 2.4%
Outer SE £279,858 0.8% 2.5%
Outer Met £364,309 -0.3% 0.9%
London £468,544 -0.7% -1.9%
North £125,085 -1.7% 1.6%

Focus on London – Best and Worst (-) annual performers according to:

Rightmove September 2018 Average Price (£) GBP Monthly change % Annual change %
Barking and Dagenham 316,247 -0.4 2.4
Waltham Forest 486,292 -0.4 1.3
Lewisham 460,440 -0.7 -4.5
Hammersmith and Fulham 878,089 -0.3 -5.7
LCL Acadata July 2018 Average Price (£) GBP Monthly change Annual change
Merton 659,305 4.1% 10.1%
Redbridge 477,196 0.2% 6.5%
Greenwich 423,066 -2.6% -8.7%
City of Westminster 1,313,072 -9.7% -11.8%

RICS Survey Overview
The RICS Residential Market Survey for September reported flat prices nationally with continued regional disparity.

Fresh listings have continued to fall, with affordability and lack of stock, as well as economic uncertainty and interest rates, restraining activity in the housing market.

New buyer enquiries and new sales instructions fell, and estate agents stocks are at a record low.

Tenant demand rose for the fourth successive month while new letting instructions continue to decline. Lettings growth is expected to accelerate to an average 3.5% over the next five years.

Rightmove.co.uk is the UK’s leading property website, displaying details of homes for sale or rent to the largest online audience. It is consistently ranked the number one property website in the UK (source: Experian Hitwise). It has around 90% of all properties for sale and at any time displays a stock of over one million properties to buy or rent, worth around £270 billion. The Rightmove.co.uk site attracts over 130 million visits from home movers each month with time on site averaging over one billion minutes per month (Rightmove data, 2017).

LSL Acad E&W HPI is derived from Land Registry (LR) house price data, seasonally and mix adjusted by property type. © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry. The prices are smoothed to show underlying trends. LSL Acad E&W HPI includes cash purchase prices and is the only index based upon the complete, factual house price data for England & Wales, as opposed to a sample.

UK HPI: Monthly house price inflation, calculated using data from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. This replaces the previous House Price Indices separately published by Office of National Statistics and Land Registry.

All figures within this article are correct at the time of going to press, and are reproduced in good faith. No responsibility will be taken for any decisions taken based on the information contained herein. Always seek professional advice.

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in November 2018.

Back to October 2018 Newsletter 

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