October 2017 Property Market fact file

A round up of the latest property market news, collating survey data, statistics, trends and information about the property market. (All figures below are the most recently available data.)

UK House Price Index
Data source: Land Registry
UK average house price = £225,956, up 5.0% over the year, a 0.5% increase over the month
Monthly index (where January 2015 = 100) is 118.5

Prime central London remains the only area where house price expectations are negative.

The number of UK properties with a value of >£40k has increased by 6.6% over twelve months, but decreased by -0.5% between July and August.

The North West, South West, East of England and East Midlands all had growth of over 6.4% in the twelve months to August 2017. For the ninth consecutive month, London house price growth remained below UK average and was the lowest annual house price growth at 2.6% over the year.

The number of house sale transactions in England fell by -11% in the year June 2017, but rose by 19.3% in Scotland and 1.4% in Wales.

Halifax
UK average house price = £225,109, up 0.8% in the month, up 1.4% in the quarter, up 4.0% in the year.

The average house price is the highest on record and house price increases have picked up from the slow down earlier in the year. House prices continue to be supported by a lack of housing supply and high employment levels. Warnings of possible mortgage rate increases, pressures on spending power and affordability issues are likely to have had a detrimental effect on buyer demand.

Mortgage approvals have been at the lower end of the scale for eleven months. House sale instructions are increasing but remain at a near record low.

Rightmove
England and Wales average house asking price = £310,003 down -1.2% in the month and up 1.1% in the year

This month saw the first September fall in house prices since 2013, at -£3,660. London saw the most dramatic falls at -2.9% (-£18,358); excluding London, the monthly national drop would be -0.5%. Reductions were seen in five out of six of the most expensive London boroughs, while more affordable boroughs remain buoyant.

Sales were up nationally by 4.8% (5.6% in London) and reflected strong demand for sensibly priced properties. Family homes remain in high demand and have consequently seen the greatest annual price increases (up +6.7% on last year) and highest number of sales nationally (up 2.9% on last year).

Nationwide
UK average house price = £210,116 up 0.2% in the month, up 2.0% in the year

For the first time in 12 years, London was the weakest performing region, with recorded house prices down -0.6% over 12 months.

House price growth remains stable and housing activity a little higher over recent months, although still relatively subdued.

A modest bank rate increase would have little effect on economic activity, and any increases are expected to be limited and introduced gradually, culminating in an expected rise to around 1.25% over the next five years.

LSL / Acadata
Average England and Wales house price = £297,287, down -0.1% from last month, up 1.3% in the year.

Average UK house prices were up £3,890 on September 2016 but the number of house sale transactions was down by 20%.

Overall, 86% of the 108 unitary authority areas have recorded house price increases over the year. Five of the 15 areas where house prices have fallen are in the South East. The East of England is the strongest house growth region, with Bedfordshire standing at 9.3% house price growth in twelve months. In the South West, Poole (up 10.5%) and Bournemouth (up 9.9%) have been the strongest areas for house price growth, mainly from strong sales of detached coastal properties in summer 2017.

HM Revenue & Customs
The provisional number of UK residential property transaction completions (>£40k) for August 2017 was 103,490, representing a decrease of -0.5% between July-August 2017, and the seasonally adjusted figure is 6.6% higher than August 2016 and around the same as August 2015. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 6.6% higher than July 2017, and 5.6% higher than August 2016.

Non-residential property transactions decreased by -2.1% between July-August 2017. This is 1.8% higher than July-August 2016.

Countrywide, the UK’s largest estate agency group in the UK, has published its Monthly Lettings Index for September 2017. It reported that 65,000 tenants had left London over twelve months. 78% went to rent outside the capital, while only 22% left to buy a home (ten years ago, 51% of those leaving London rentals left to buy their home). On average, tenants leaving the capital were moving 89 miles away, mostly to the Midlands and North of England.

Land Registry Price Paid Data
Of the 98,513 residential and commercial sales lodged for registration in August, the most expensive residential property sale was a flat in the London Borough of Knightsbridge, which sold for £18,250,000. There were 663 residential property sales valued at £1m or more in England and Wales, 392 of which were in London.

The cheapest residential sale was a terraced property in Cannock Chase, Staffordshire, recorded as sold for £5,300.

REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES

UK HPI Regional figures (all percentages are positive unless indicated otherwise)
September 2017 Average price (£)
GBP
Monthly change
%
Annual change
%
England £243,520 0.7% 5.3%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 1 – 2017) £128,650 3.1% 4.4%
Scotland £146,354 -0.7% 3.9%
Wales £150,258 -0.1% 3.4%
East Midlands £183,762 0.3% 6.4%
East of England £288,440 0.0% 6.4%
London £484,362 -1.0% 2.6%
North East £130,731 1.4% 3.7%
North West £159,865 2.3% 6.5%
South East £324,983 1.1% 4.8%
South West £251,984 0.6% 6.4%
West Midlands Region £188,447 0.6% 5.3%
Yorkshire and The Humber £158,689 1.4% 4.8%

UK HPI Average monthly price by property type

Property type August 2017 August 2016 Difference
Detached £341,167 £322,484 5.8%
Semi-detached £211,236 £201,559 4.8%
Terraced £183,969 £175,233 5.0%
Flat or maisonette £203,205 £194,478 4.5%
All £225,956 £215,143 5.0%

 

Rightmove regional figures
September 2017 Average price (£)
GBP
Monthly change
%
Annual change
%
Greater London 610,912 -2.9 -3.2
South East 413,925 -0.4 1.1
South West 306,420 -0.7 2.0
East of England 348,343 -0.2 3.3
West Midlands 217,195 -1.3 4.4
East Midlands 208,343 0.0 5.5
Wales 181,231 -3.3 2.3
North West 186,238 -1.2 3.4
Yorkshire & Humberside 180,749 0.2 3.1
North East 149,550 0.5 1.5

 

FOCUS ON LONDON Average Price (£)

GBP

Monthly change

%

Annual change

%

Best and Worst (-) performers according to:
Rightmove September 2017
Hackney 722,471 5.2 9.5
Southwark 676,346 9.4 7.2
Hammersmith and Fulham 928,882 1.5 -8.0
Kensington and Chelsea 1,845,692 -14.3 -10.2
LCL Acadata September 2017
Redbridge 466,535 2.1 7.3
Croydon 409,346 0.6 5.8
Southwark 561,716 -1.6 -6.2
Wandsworth 726,432 -2.1 -6.8

RICS Survey Overview

The RICS Residential Market Survey for September 2017 reported that house buyer enquiries and sales had both fallen over the month, and expectations were subdued in the near term.

London and the South East showed negative house price growth and in both regions the highest number of respondents to the survey reported house overpricing to be a major factor.

New house buyer activity fell by -20% in September, while new instructions were fairly stable over the month, after eighteen months of steady decline. Agreed house sales were -15% in September and London and the South East showed the greatest weakness.

The lettings market showed a 10% rise in demand, although landlord instructions fell. London rents are likely to fall over the year ahead, against the national trend which is anticipated by agents to see a 2% rise.

Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

 

Rightmove.co.uk is the UK’s leading property website, displaying details of homes for sale or rent to the largest online audience. It is consistently ranked the number one property website in the UK (source: Experian Hitwise). It has around 90% of all properties for sale and at any time displays a stock of over one million properties to buy or rent, worth around £270 billion. The Rightmove.co.uk site attracts over 130 million visits from home movers each month with time on site averaging over one billion minutes per month (Rightmove data, 2017).

LSL Acad E&W HPI is derived from Land Registry (LR) house price data, seasonally and mix adjusted by property type. © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry. The prices are smoothed to show underlying trends. LSL Acad E&W HPI includes cash purchase prices and is the only index based upon the complete, factual house price data for England & Wales, as opposed to a sample.

UK HPI: Monthly house price inflation, calculated using data from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. This replaces the previous House Price Indices separately published by Office of National Statistics and Land Registry.

All figures within this article are correct at the time of going to press, and are reproduced in good faith. No responsibility will be taken for any decisions taken based on the information contained herein. Always seek professional advice.

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in November 2017.

PropertySurveying.co.uk