Property Market Monthly Fact File – November 2014

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for over 5½ years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England

oOo
HOUSE PRICE INDICES
– some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price ranges from 177k (Land Registry) to 276k (Acadata),
with varying movements in prices across the indices.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to August 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 14th October 2014, show that house prices increased by 11.7% over the year, to an average of £274k. This is a 0.6% increase over the month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 7.8% over the year to £208k.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in August was £210k. Over the year, this is an increase of 12.9%. Existing owners paid an average of £315k, an increase of 11.2% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £252k in August, which is an increase of 12.1% from last August. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £275k, which is 12.5% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales was £177,299 at the end of September 2014, according to the report published on 26th September 2014.
The Monthly change in September was a fall of 0.2%.
The Annual change to end of September was a rise of 7.2%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of September 2014 was £187,188, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 8th October 2014. House prices in September were 0.6% higher than in August, and the quarterly figure was up by 2.7%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 9.6% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 30th October 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £189,333 during the month of October. This is an increase from September of 0.5% after seasonal adjustment, and an annual rise of 9.0%. The 3 month on 3 month change is an increase of 1.4%.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s September survey (published 20th October 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 7th September to 11th October 2014 was £271,669, a rise of 2.6% on the previous month. House asking prices are 7.6% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata September figures, published 10th October 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £275,820 in the month. This is a 0.5% increase from August, and a 10.6% rise since last September. Excluding London and the South East, the annual rise was 4.5%.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the September 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in September is then £176,535: a 0.1% fall from August and 7.7% up on September 2013.
In the quarter from April to July ’14, the number of repossessions averaged 890 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,324 per month – a fall of 33%.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to July 2014 of 33% – 1,283 to 863. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the East had 45% fewer repossession sales compared to last July, whereas London had 13% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

oOo
HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY.
The recent increases in London are slowing down, while the South East, East Anglia and the South West have all reached their ‘peak’ levels.

ONS House Price Index figures by country.
The average house price in England in August 2014 was £285k, £172k in Wales, £143k in Northern Ireland and £200k in Scotland.
Over the past year, England’s average house price rise was 12.2%, Scotland’s was 6.7%, Wales’ was 4.7% and Northern Ireland’s prices rose by 9.6%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 19.6% over the year to an average of £514k, while the smallest rise was 3.8% in the North East to an average of £154k.
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s October survey showing the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 7th September to 11th October  2014 broken down by region.
The largest monthly increase was in Greater London, where asking prices rose by 7.0% over the period from £557,792 to £596,692. The annual change there was a rise of 9.6% – the second highest annual increase.
The largest monthly decrease was in East Anglia, where average prices fell by 1.4% from £249,860 to £246,396. The annual change here was a rise of 4.3%.
The largest annual rise was 10.0% in the South East, where prices have risen from £323,546 last October to £355,874 this October. The monthly change was a rise of 2.2%.
The smallest annual rise (there were no decreases) was in the North West, where prices increased by 2.6% to £168,751.
Source: Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
None of the ten regions had a drop in prices over the year, but seven experienced a drop in the month.
The largest monthly increase was – surprisingly – not in London, but in the East of England, which saw an increase over the month of 1.4%, bringing the average house price in the region to £197,027. This is 10.9%  higher than this time last year – the second largest annual increase.
The largest monthly decrease in price was Yorkshire & Humberside, where the average prices fell 2.2% to £119,184. The annual increase is 1.4% which is the smallest annual increase.
London had the largest annual increase – 18.4% to an average of £460,521.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that for the month of August 2014, only one of the ten regions specified had an decrease in house prices..
Figures for England and Wales overall show an average house price in August of £274,417, which is a 0.8% increase over the month and an 10.7% increase over the year.
The largest rise in the month was once again in Greater London – up 1.3% to an average of £578,377. The annual rise here was 20.4% – the largest annual rise. (See section below for analysis by borough.)
The North saw the only drop in the month – down 0.2% to £148,864. This is 2.8% higher than last year, which is the smallest of the annual changes.
Annually, as mentioned, London saw the highest rise, and the second highest was the South East – up 10.6% to an average of £317,333 which is 0.8% higher than last month.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary Authority.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Redcar and Cleveland, where the average price is up by 2.8% to £101,447. This is 2.7% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was 5.8% in Blaenau Gwent, where the average price is £62,578, which is unchanged from last year.
Greater London saw the largest annual price rise (18.4% to an average of £460,521).
The largest annual fall was once again Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 6.5% to £62,244. This is 2.8% lower than August.
Of the 101 counties/unitary authorities defined, 12 saw movement of only 0.1% plus three seeing zero price movement in the month (City of Plymouth, Leicestershire and North Somerset).
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in August 2014 was Rutland, where average prices rose by 3.7% to an average of £291,761. The annual change there was a rise of 7.6%.
The next largest monthly increase was in Warrington where prices rose by 3.6% to £195,119, and the annual rise was 3.9%.
Blaenau Gwent saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 5.9% to £83,673. The annual change there was a rise of 5.5%. Following closely, Blackburn & Darwen saw a fall of 4.4% in the month. The annual change was a fall of 1.7% (to £107,003).
Windsor and Maidenhead saw the largest annual increase (26.6% to £541,560), but Brighton and Hove were not far behind with a 17.5% increase over the year to £336,678. The monthly changes were a rise of 1.1% and a fall of 0.1%. respectively.
The largest annual decrease was in Denbighshire, where prices fell by 2.0% to £143,901. This is 0.3% higher than last month. Next was Redcar & Cleveland, where prices fell by 1.9% over the year to £126,328. There was a fall of 0.4% in the month here.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase was in Wolverhampton, where the average prices were up by 3.1% to £103,010. This is 5.3% higher than last year.
The largest fall in the month was in Oldham – average prices fell by 2.6% to £81,460, which is 4.7% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise is in Bury, where prices rose by 11.3% to an average of £116,599. However, this is 1.2% higher than last month.
The greatest annual decrease in price was once again in Barnsley, where prices fell by 3.1% to an average of £84,236. This is 0.5% lower than last month.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period 7th September to 11th October 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in the borough of Islington, where prices rose by 8.7% to £847,978.
The largest decrease in asking prices was in Brent, where they fell by 4.4% in the period to £735,899. Tower Hamlets was the only other borough which saw a decrease in the period – down 0.3% to £595,339.
Annually, the largest increase was in Newham, where prices rose by 18.2% over the year, to an average of £317,256, which is a rise of 1.8% over the month.
Kensington and Chelsea were the only borough to see a fall over the year – 9.3% down to an average of £2,187,343.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month of August 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 1.3% to £578,377. Over the year, the change is a 20.4% rise.
The City of London had the largest monthly rise: up 4.6% to an average of £1,585,725. The annual change here was a rise of 31.5%, which is the largest annual rise.
Next in line, both Barnet and Haringey prices rose by 3.6% in the month to £577,744 and £532,353 respectively, and the annual rises were 15.6% and 12.0%.
Lambeth saw the largest decrease this month – down 3.2% to £542,198. However, this is 28.4% higher than last year.
The smallest rise over the year was in Havering, where prices rose by 9.3% to an average of £292,707 – a monthly rise of 0.6%.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £213,458, although this is a rise of 1.1% since last month, and of 16.2% since last year.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London
The Land Registry’s September survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Hounslow – the borough saw a rise of 2.5% in the month. The average price is now £356,743, which is 14.3% higher than last year.
Kensington & Chelsea saw the only average house price fall – 0.3% from last month to £1,341,854, although the annual change was a rise of 15.2%.
The biggest annual rise was once again in Lambeth, where prices rose by 28.6% to £533,828, which is 0.9% higher than last month.
Harrow yet again saw the smallest annual rise – up 13.0% to £357,954. This borough saw a monthly rise of 1.4%.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack UK Cities HPI – (replaces their Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey)
Hometrack say that “the 20 cities in this new house price index cover a land area that is less than 5% of the UK but the cities contain over 40% of the value of UK housing and a similar proportion of all UK jobs.” Furthermore, “the London city definition extends beyond the 33 London Boroughs and includes the primary commuter areas. London city covers 44 local authorities.”
September’s survey (published 24th October 2014) gives an average UK house price of £184,600. The annual house price inflation was 8.9% in September. Month on month, the rate is 0.4%.
Only 6 of the 20 cities show annual growth above the UK average, all of them in the south of England.
London (£398,700) saw the largest increase of 18.1% over the year, with Cambridge (£348,300) not far behind on 17.9%. The smallest increase was 4.3% in Glasgow (£109,200).
Bristol (£217,600) saw the largest monthly increase (1.1%) with Glasgow’s 1.0% next. Aberdeen (£188,500) saw a reduction of 0.6% in the month.
Relative to the peak of 2007, Cambridge has beaten London to the top, with 32.4% above peak, with London making 29.2% above. At the other end of the scale, Belfast (£113,500) is still 50.7% below the peak price.
Source: Hometrack

Halifax House Price Index – quarterly figures by region.
The standardised average price of a house at the end of the third quarter of 2014 was £186,741, according to the Halifax House Price Index. Regionally this varies from an average of £355,630 in Greater London to £109,392 in Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland’s prices rose by 9.4% over the quarter, compared to the North, where prices fell by 2.3% over the period to £125,487.
Annually, prices in the North fell by 2.2% to £125,487, the only region to see a fall over the year. The largest rises were Greater London’s rise by 20.4%, Northern Ireland’s by 18.9% and East Anglia’s by 18.6% (to £191,989).
Source: Halifax

Average House Price by region – % below peak.
LSL Acadata September report shows that compared to the peak of 2007- 2008, the average house prices in the South East, Greater London, East Anglia and now the South West have all exceeded their peak prices.
The North is still 8.3% lower than its peak in March 2008.
Source: Acadata Ltd

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for September 2014 (published 9th October 2014) says that a “more balanced picture [is] emerging nationally”, as the “London market [is] coming off the boil”.
Northern Ireland saw the largest price increases over the month, whilst London saw the only decrease.
The North of England had the highest level of agreed sales in September by quite a large margin, whereas London saw the lowest.
Northern Ireland and the North of England had the highest levels of new buyer enquiries in the month whereas London saw a large drop.
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in Wales, and the lowest in the West Midlands.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

oOo
PROPERTY TYPES
– The prices of all types of property are rising over the long-term,
with terraced properties continuing to be cheapest option.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 11th October 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase 7.6% to £271,669. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are priced higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 10.3% to £243,174.
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 10.2% to £216,711.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 6.8% to £397,736.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 9.1% to £226,422.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s September average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 7.2% in the year to the end of September 2014. The average price is now £177,299.

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 6.9% to £169,218
  • Terraced properties rose by 7.3% to £133,978
  • Detached properties rose by 6.9% to £278,156
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 7.5% to £167,647

Source: Land Registry

Halifax’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Halifax quarterly average price (not standardised) figures analysed by property type show that across the UK, the prices over all types of property rose by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2014. The average price is now £216,834, which is 7.0% higher than Q3 2013.
Over the quarter:

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 0.8% to £209,858
  • Terraced properties fell by 1.3% to £181,339
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 2.0% to £196,421
  • Bungalows fell by 0.33% to £216,849
  • Detached properties rose by 4.2% to £323,095

Source: Halifax

oOo
MORTGAGE FIGURES

Mortgage Lending by the Major UK Lenders
According to the latest quarterly publication from the Bank of England, (Trends in Lending October 2014, covering the quarter to August 2014), the major UK lenders comprising Banco Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Nationwide and Royal Bank of Scotland, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase was 66.9k in June, 66.1k in July and 64.2k in August . Remortgaging numbered 32.0k in June, 32.9k in July and 32.3k in August.
Source: Bank of England

New Mortgages granted – August Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 65,400 loans were made in August for house purchase, worth £11.4 billion. This is lower than July’s in number by 3.3% and in value by 3.4%. However, these figures are up 7.9% and 18.8% (respectively) on last August’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 28,900, valued at £4.4 billion, which is down 4.3% both in number and in value on last month. This is 9.5% higher in number and 22.2% higher in value, compared to last August.
Home movers’ loans totalled £7.0 billion, and numbered 36,500. These figures are down 2.7% in terms of number, and 2.8% in value on last month, but are up 6.7% in number and 16.7% in value on last August.
The number and value of remortgage loans also fell in the month – 24,000 loans worth £3.7 billion were made in August. These figures are 3.3% lower than last month’s in terms of volume and 3.4% down in value. However, over the year, these figures are up by 7.9% in number and up 18.8% in value.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – September Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reported on 20th October that September’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK would be £17.8 billion. This is 1% lower than last month’s figure, and a rise of 10% on last September’s £16.2 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Mortgages – First-time buyers and home-movers.
The latest figures from CML (for August ‘14, published 9th October ’14) show that first-time buyers’ mortgages average 83% loan-to-value, and are 3.42 times income. The proportion of their income that buyers are paying on interest stands at 11.9%, but this rises to 19.7% when including capital repayments.
For home-movers, the loan-to-value ratio is 70%, at 3.04 times income. Income proportion spent on interest is 9.0%, which rises to 18.8% when including capital repayments.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during August 2014, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.1 billion (15,300 loans). This is lower than July’s in number by 12.6% and in value by 12.5%, but higher than last August’s by 5.5% and 10.5% respectively.
44% of the buy-to-let loans were for remortgage: 6,700 loans worth £1.0 billion – a decrease of 14.1% in number, and 16.7% in value on the previous month. Compared to last August, the figures are down 0.6% in number but up 4.2% in value.
Buy-to-Let loans for house purchase totalled 8,400 worth £1.0 billion, a fall of 12.5% in number and 16.7% in value on last month, but a rise of 9.4% in number and 16.3% in value on August 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.1m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £115,940 in August 2014.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.293 trillion at the end of August 2014. This is up from the previous August’s £1,270 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

oOo
TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER INFORMATION

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s September Report, in July 2014, 79,214 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 10,009 in London. This represents a rise of 7% in England & Wales, and a fall of 8% in London since last July’s figures, (73,749 and 10,885 respectively).
Compared to last July, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 846 to 989 – a rise of 17%, and in England & Wales it increased from 1,207 to 1,439 – a rise of 19%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 3% in England & Wales (from 51,902 last July to 53,569 this July), but it fell by 31% in London (from 3,540 to 2,458 in the same period).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from April to July 2014 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 75,950. This is up 18.1% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 64,317 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

NHBC Figures for new homes in Q3 2014
NHBC New Home Statistics Review of Q3 2014 figures (published 23rd October 2014) totalled 36,343 in the quarter. That is 28,468 in the private sector, and 7,875 in the public sector: an increase of 14% and a decrease of 8% respectively on the same period last year (24,984 and 8,589 respectively). Last quarter, the total was very slightly higher at 36,858, although the private sector figure was 3% lower (27,527) and the public sector figure was 18% higher (9,331).
Regional analysis shows that Northern Ireland (including the Isle of Man) saw the largest rise in registrations in the quarter (compared with a year ago) of 71% (from 410 to 700). The next region is Wales, which saw a rise of 63% (from 818 to 1,331). Scotland saw a rise of 9% (from 2,759 to 3,017), and England saw an overall rise of 6% from 29,586 to 31,295.
Within England, the largest increase was the West Midlands, where registrations increased by 51% from 2,551 last year to 3,848 this year. Next highest were the North East and Yorkshire & the Humber (both had a 32% increase from 929 to 1,226 and from 1,917 to 2,524 respectively).
The South East saw the greatest fall in registrations – down 15% in this period.
Source: NHBC

NHBC Figures for new homes, analysed by age and property type
NHBC New Home Statistics Review of Q3 2014 (published 23rd October 2014) gives analysis of Qs 1 and 2 by age of the buyer and by property type.
33% of the new homes registered were detached houses. Only 1% were bungalows. 21% were flats and maisonettes and another 21% were semi-detached houses.
In the first half of 2014, 32% of new home buyers were aged between 25 and 34 years and 26% were over 54. Only 7% were under 25 years of age.
Of the 626 under 25s, 195 (31%) bought semi-detached houses and 113 (18%) bought flats or maisonettes. However, in the 55 and over group, 827 (37%) of the 2,256 bought flats and 366 (16%) bought semi-detached houses.
Source: NHBC

Halifax: House Price to Earnings Ratio by region
House Price to Earnings Ratio is derived by dividing the average house price by the average annual salary. The latest calculations are based on an average salary of £37,140, and a standardised average house price of £187,188.
In the UK, in the third quarter of 2014, the ratio of house price to earnings was 5.03. This was up from 4.90 last quarter, and has been slowly increasing for the last two years.
Regionally, this varies from 7.1 in Greater London down to 3.59 in Scotland.
The overall UK mortgage affordability figure (mortgage repayments as a percentage of income) in Q3 2014 is 29.5%, varying from 20.2% in Northern Ireland, to 44.2% in Greater London.
Source: Halifax

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in December 2014.

Comment on this article