Property Market Monthly Fact File – October 2014

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for over 5½ years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England

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 HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price ranges from 178k (Land Registry) to 274k (Acadata),
with varying movements in prices across the indices.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to July 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 16th September 2014, show that house prices increased by 11.7% over the year, to an average of £272k. This is a 1.6% increase over the month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 7.9% to £206k.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in July was £209k. Over the year, this is an increase of 13.5%. Existing owners paid an average of £313k in July, an increase of 10.9% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £254k in July, which is an increase of 13.8% from last July. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £273k, which is 11.5% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales was £177,824 at the end of August 2014, according to the report published on 26th September 2014.
The Monthly change in August was a rise of 1.0%.
The Annual change to end of August was a rise of 8.4%.
Source: Land Registry

Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of August 2014 was £186,270, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 8th September 2014. House prices in August were 0.1% higher than in July, and the quarterly figure was up by 3.0%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 9.7% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 30th September 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £188,374 during the month of September. This is a decrease from August of 0.2% after seasonal adjustment, and an annual rise of 9.4%. It has been seventeen months since Nationwide has seen a fall in house prices.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s September survey (published 15th September 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 10th August to 6th September 2014 was £264,875, a rise of 0.9% on the previous month. House asking prices are 7.9% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata August figures, published 12th September 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £274,302 in the month. This is a 0.9% increase from July, and a 10.7% rise since last August. Excluding London and the South East, the annual rise was 4.3% to an average of £185,496.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the August 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in August is then £176,907: a 1.0% rise from July and 8.8% up on August 2013.
In the quarter from March to June ’14, the number of repossessions averaged 927 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,393 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to June 2014 of 36% – 1,238 to 794. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the East had 51% fewer repossession sales compared to last June, whereas the West Midlands had 21% fewer.
Source: Land Registry

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY.
Greater London and the South East consistently out-perform other regions in England and Wales

ONS House Price Index figures by country.
The average house price in England in July 2014 was £284k, £1716k in Wales, £139k in Northern Ireland and £198k in Scotland.
Over the year to July 2014, England’s average house price rise was 12.0%, Scotland’s was 7.6% and Wales’ was 7.4%. Northern Ireland’s prices rose by 4.5%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 19.1% over the year to an average of £514k, while the smallest rise was 5.0% in Yorkshire and The Humber to an average of £174k.
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s September survey showing the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 10th August to 6th September 2014 broken down by region.
The largest monthly increase was in East Anglia, where asking prices rose by 3.7% over the period from £241,045 to £249,860. The annual change there was a rise of 8.1%.
The largest monthly decrease was in the West Midlands, where average prices fell by 1.8% from £197,702 to £194,077. The annual change here was a fall of 0.7% – the only region to see an annual fall.
The largest annual rise was 13.0% in Greater London, where prices have risen from £493,748 last September to £557,792 this September. The monthly change was a rise of 0.9%.
Source: Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
No regions had a drop in prices over the month or the year.
The largest monthly increase was in London, which saw an increase over the month of 2.7%, bringing the average house price in the capital to £467,070. This is 21.6% higher than this time last year – the largest annual increase.
The smallest monthly increase in price were the South West and the North West, where the average prices fell 0.1% to £183,991 and £113,269 respectively, which are 5.8% and 4.2% higher than a year ago.
The smallest annual increase was once again in the North East which saw a rise of 3.0% over the year to £100,781 – a 0.6% rise on last month.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that for the month of July 2014, only one of the ten regions specified had an decrease in house prices (Yorkshire & Humberside), and two stayed the same (the South West and the East Midlands).
Figures for England and Wales overall show an average house price in July of £271,821, which is a 0.7% increase over the month and an 10.4% increase over the year.
The largest rise in the month was once again in Greater London – up 1.4% to an average of £571,336. The annual rise here was 20.6% – the largest annual rise. (See section below for analysis by borough.)
Yorkshire & Humberside saw the only drop in the month – down 0.3% to £162,106. This is 3.3% higher than last year, which is the smallest of the annual changes.
Annually, as mentioned, London saw the highest rise, and the second highest was the South East – up 9.4% to an average of £313,861 which is 0.8% higher than last month. The second lowest annual increase was the North West, where prices rose by 3.4% over the year to an average of £161,458.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Greater London, where the average price is up by 2.7% to £467,070. This is 21.6% higher than last year, which is the largest annual increase.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was 3.2% in Wrexham, where the average price is £115,526, which is 0.7% lower than last year.
As mentioned above, Greater London saw the largest annual price rise (19.3% to an average of £457,072).
The largest annual fall was shared by Hartlepool and Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 4.8% to £73,716 and £64,660 respectively . These are 0.1% and 1.0% lower than July.
Of the 101 counties/unitary authorities defined, 10 saw movement of only 0.1% plus two seeing zero price movement in the month (Shropshire and Middlesbrough).
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in July 2014 was Carmarthenshire, where average prices rose by 6.4% to an average of £138,055. The annual change there was a rise of 1.6%.
The next largest monthly increase was in Windsor and Maidenhead where prices rose by 3.5% to £526,348, and the annual rise was 19.5%.
The Isle of Anglesey saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 3.5% to £164,994. The annual change there was a rise of 4.9%. Following closely, Rutland saw a fall of 2.7% in the month. The annual change was a rise of 5.4% (to £279,302).
Brighton and Hove saw the largest annual increase (20.1% to £339,612), but Windsor and Maidenhead were not far behind with a 19.5% increase over the year (see paragraph above). The monthly change in Brighton and Hove was a fall of 0.4%.
The largest annual decrease was yet again in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 4.0% to £99,424. This is, however, 2.4% higher than last month.
Only five regions had a reducton in house prices over the year – Merthyr Tydfil (4.0%), Cornwall (2.1%), Blackburn with Darwen (2.1%), Halton (1.1%) and Blackpool (0.7%).
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increases were in North Tyneside and Knowsley, where the average prices were up by 1.8% to £125,191 and £103,835 respectively. These are 7.7% and 2.6% higher than last year.
The largest fall in the month was in Sandwell – average prices fell by 3.3% to £88,115, which is 1.4% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise is in Oldham yet again, where prices rose by 9.2% to an average of £83,995. However, this is down 1.3% from last month.
The greatest annual decrease in price was in Barnsley, where prices fell by 2.6% to an average of £84,104. This is 2.1% lower than last month.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period 10th August to 6th September 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in the boroughs of Enfield and Haringey, where prices rose by 3.9% to £400,834 and £620,917 respectively.
The largest decrease in asking prices was in Kensington & Chelsea, where they fell by 3.7% in the month to £2,115,470. The average price fell by 1.8% over the year – the only borough to see an annual fall.
Annually, the largest increase was yet again in Tower Hamlets, where prices rose by 27.1% over the year, to an average of £596,941, although this is a fall of 1.6% over the month.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month of July 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 1.4% to £571,336. Over the year, the change is a 20.6% rise.
The City of London had the largest monthly rise: up 9.2% to an average of £912,561. The annual change here was a rise of 14.4%.
Next in line, Hammersmith & Fulham prices rose by 4.3% in the month to £931,422, and the annual rise was 22.5%.
Southwark saw the largest decrease this month – down 0.7% to £516,859. However, this is 19.6% higher than last year.
Lambeth had the highest annual increase of 39.6% to £579,420 (monthly change is a 2.5% rise but the report says Lambeth saw a large jump in prices a few months ago due to the sale of some up-market waterfront flats on a new development.), followed by the City of Westminster’s 29.2% to £1,502,835, even though the monthly change was a fall of 0.1%.
The lowest rise over the year was in Brent, where prices rose by 6.8% to an average of £474,968 – a monthly rise of 0.5%.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £210,480, although this is a rise of 1.3% since last month, and of 12.5% since last year.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s August survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Merton – the borough saw a rise of 3.4% in the month. The average price is now £456,599, which is 22.9% higher than last year.
Havering saw the average house price fall 0.1% from last month to £291,822. This was the only borough to see a decrease over the month.
The biggest annual rise was in Lambeth, where prices rose by 28.9% to £526,005, which is 1.5% higher than last month.
Harrow once again saw the smallest annual rise – up 9.6% to £345,407. This borough saw a monthly rise of 0.8%.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Nationwide’s UK House Prices Index report for Q3 2014.
In Quarter 3 of 2014, the average UK house price has been calculated (after seasonal adjustment) as £188,810 by the Nationwide. This is 1.5% higher than Q2 2014, and shows a 10.5% increase since the same quarter last year. For the twelth successive quarter, the most expensive region in the UK to buy a property is, not surprisingly, London, and the least expensive region is once again Northern Ireland.
Regionally over the quarter, East Anglia’s average price rose by 3.0% to £194,680, whereas in the North of England, there was a drop of 2.1% to an average of £121,990. Over the past year, London’s prices have risen by 21.0% to £401,072, whereas the North’s prices rose by only 4.3%.
London had an increase in house prices of 21.0% on last year (as mentioned above), but only a 0.9% increase on last quarter. Westminster is still the most expensive borough, with the average price (£984,075) over four times the average price in the cheapest borough, Barking & Dagenham (£239,348).
Camden saw the strongest growth this quarter (42% to an average of £884,103), whereas Brent saw the weakest (12% to £489,973).
House prices in England have risen 1.2% over the quarter, and 12.8% over the year. The average house price in England is now £225,768. The North is still the cheapest place in England to buy a property, where the average price was £121,990 during the quarter.
Wales’ quarterly change was a drop of 0.8%, but the annual rise was 5.0%. The average price in Wales is now £144,096, with Cardiff remaining the most expensive area – the average house price in Cardiff is £228,720.
Scotland’s house prices rose 1.3% on last quarter, and rose 5.2% on last year, to an average price of £142,288. Aberdeen City is still the most expensive place to buy a house in Scotland – the average price there is £269,948.
House prices in Northern Ireland are now 10.2% up on last year, and 2.9% up on last quarter, standing at an average of £119,782. The City of Belfast still has the highest prices at an average of £188,240.
On an annual basis, looking at towns and cities within England, after altering the basis of comparison, St Albans performed best, with house prices increasing by 24% since last year. The average price of a house in St Albans is now £479,497.
The worst performance in England was once again Newcastle, where prices rose by only 4% in the year. House prices here average £182,506.
Source: Nationwide

Nationwide sub-regional analysis of average house prices over the last 10 years.
Analysing the price rises over Great Britain by region over the last ten years shows some major differences. Compared to 10 years ago, the average house price in Aberdeenshire & Moray has risen by 87% to £193,670. This is the highest rise outside London, where Camden’s average price has risen by 148% over the decade to £884,103.
In the West of Northern Ireland, the average price of £116,266 is only 3% higher than 10 years ago.
On the mainland, Northumberland fared worst, with house prices averaging £168,968 – only 3% higher than a decade ago.
The London Borough which saw the smallest rise is Barking & Dagenham, where average prices rose by 33% over the past ten years to £239,348.
Source: Nationwide

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for August 2014 (published 11th September 2014) says that
“Price momentum remains strong … despite agreed sales falling [for] the first time since September 2012”.
For a second month, East Anglia saw the largest price rise over the month, whilst London saw the smallest.
Northern Ireland had the highest level of agreed sales in August, twhereas the North West saw the least.
The North of England and Scotland had the highest levels of new buyer enquiries in the month whereas the South West and the West Midlands saw a drop.
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in London and the North. Once again, the North West saw the largest decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising over the long-term, but flats and maisonettes are consistently rising faster than other types of property.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 6th September 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 7.9%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are priced higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 13.4% to £232,793.
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 10.1% to £207,864.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 9.4% to £392,698.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 7.2% to £221,599.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s August average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 8.4% in the year to the end of August 2014. The average price is now £177,824.

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 10.9% to £171,975
  • Terraced properties rose by 8.4% to £134,594
  • Detached properties rose by 7.5% to £278,003
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 7.2% to £166,667

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

New Mortgages granted – July Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 67,700 loans were made in July for house purchase, worth £11.8 billion. This is higher than June’s in number by 9.5% and in value by 14.6%. These figures are up 21.3% and 32.6% (respectively) on last July’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 30,200, valued at £4.6 billion, which is up by 3.4% in number and 9.5% in value on last month. This is 25.3% higher in number and 39.4% higher in value, compared to last July’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £7.2 billion, and numbered 37,500. These figures are up 15.0% in terms of number, and 20.0% in value on last month, and are up 18.7% in number and 30.9% in value on last July.
The number and value of remortgage loans also rose in the month – 25,100 loans worth £3.9 billion were made in July. These figures are 3.7% higher than last month’s in terms of volume and up 2.6% in value. However, over the year, these figures are down by 15.2% in number and down 4.9% in value.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – August Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reported on 18th September that August’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK would be £18.6 billion. This is 5% lower than last month’s figure, and a rise of 13% on last August’s £19.3 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during July 2014, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.4 billion (17,500 loans). This is higher than June’s in number by 12.2% and in value by 26.3%.
45% of the buy-to-let loans were for remortgage: 7,800 loans worth £1.2 billion – an increase of 7.6% in number, and 10.1% in value on the previous month. Compared to last July, the figures are up 9.4% in number and 20.0% in value.
Buy-to-Let loans for house purchase totalled 9,600 worth £1.2 billion, a rise of 17.1% in number and 20.0% in value on last month, and a rise of 28.5% in number and 41.2% in value on July 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.1m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £115,742 in July 2014.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.290 trillion at the end of July 2014. This is up from the previous July’s £1,270 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

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 TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER INFORMATION

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s August Report, in June 2014, 73,158 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 9,049 in London. This represents a rise of 11% in England & Wales, and a rise of 1% in London since last June’s figures, (66,123 and 8,917 respectively).
Compared to last June, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 594 to 798 – a rise of 34%, and in England & Wales it increased from 848 to 1,135 – also a rise of 34%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 6% in England & Wales (from 47,943 last June to 50,934 this June), but it fell by 22% in London (from 3,026 to 2,352 in the same period).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from February to May 2014 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 68,448. This is up 26.0% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 54,334 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
September’s survey (published 26th September 2014) shows that house prices were unchanged in the month, following two consecutive months of 0.1% change.
The average amount of time that a house is on the market has also stayed the same at 6.3 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 4.2 weeks in the South East to 8.8 weeks in the North West.
On average, 95.8% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 96.9% in the South East, down to 94.3% in the North East.
6.1% of postcode districts reported a price increase in September, a big fall from August’s 19.3% and July’s 23.7% The number of postcodes reporting a decrease has fallen to 1.2%, compared to 4.2% last month.
Looking specifically at London, the monthly price change is a drop of 0.1%, compared to no change in the previous two months. The number of postcode districts reporting a price increase over the month dropped to 0.8% from 10.9% last month and 12.1% the month before while the average time on the market has remained at 4.9 weeks for the second month, from 4.3 weeks in July.
Source: Hometrack

NHBC Figures for new homes
On 29th August, NHBC released figures for new homes registered for 3 month period May to July 2014.
39,099 new homes were registered in the rolling quarter, compared to 37,738 in the same period last year – a 1% rise. This rise is because of the Private Sector’s 7% rise, all but cancelled out by the Public Sector’s 14% drop.
July’s figures are down a bit on last year’s – from 13,539 to 13,153. This is made up of 10,278 private and 2,875 public in 2014 compared to 10,300 private and 3,239 public in 2013.
Source: NHBC

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in November 2014.

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