September 2017 Property fact file

Note:  all figures below are the most recently available data.

UK House Price Index – July 2017
Data source: Land Registry
UK average house price = £226,185, up 5.1% over the year, a 1.1% increase over the month
Monthly index (where January 2015 = 100) is 118.6

In its statement, Land Registry reported that house price expectations are close to zero, and enquiries from new buyers are slightly negative.

London house price growth was the slowest annually, at 2.8% in 12 months to July 2017, and the eighth consecutive month when London house price growth has been below UK average. The highest area of annual growth in house prices was the East Midlands, at 7.5%.

The largest annual growth in the year to 2017 by UK local authority districts was Cotswold (at 16.2%). The lowest was City of London, where prices fell -18.4%.

In terms of average price, the most expensive borough was Kensington and Chelsea with an average house price of £1.4 million and the cheapest area was Blaenau Gwent, at £81,000.

New sale instructions remained negative for the seventeenth successive month.

Halifax – August 2017
UK average house price = £222,293, up 1.1% in the month, up 0.1% in the quarter, up 2.6% in the year.

House prices in August have risen for the first time since March, to just above the previous high of £222,190 in December 2016.

Between June and July – home sales and mortgage approvals were improving. Approvals were up 5.2%, possibly due to unemployment reaching a 42 year low. Home sales reached 104,760, the highest level since March 2016. Figures were over 100,000 for the seventh successive month and the number of sales in the three months to July was 10% higher than the same period last year.

Wage growth still behind consumer prices which will continue to pressure household affordability. The continuing shortage of properties on the market will likely support house price growth in the coming months.

Rightmove – August 2017
England and Wales average house price = £313,663 down -0.9% in the month and up 3.1% in the year

The -£2,758 fall in average property values this month was not unusual for the holiday season, and the stretched affordability and dim political outlook continue to keep annual increases low.

Over 50% of the mid-country regions (comprising eight areas) were out-performing regions in the north and south in terms of increases in the national average annual rate of 3.1%. The top three best mid-country performers were Northamptonshire (at +9.1%), Derbyshire (+7.9%) and Norfolk (+7.4%). Only a quarter of northern regions (six areas) and a fifth of southern regions (five areas) out-performed the national average of 3.1%.

Sellers in low performing regions were finding it necessary to reduce asking prices. Mid-country regions are attracting London commuters with a journey from Northamptonshire to Euston is now just 48 mins.

In London, the more easterly boroughs are rising most and the ‘Crossrail effect’ is boosting annual rates in Redbridge, Bexley, Greenwich, Newham and Havering. Annual house price growth performance was worse in the more expensive >£700k boroughs and average asking prices had fallen by 1.9% (or -£12,068) in August.

Nationwide – August 2017
UK average house price = £210,495 down -0.1% in the month, up 2.1% in the year

August house price growth slowed to 2.1% from July’s 2.9%, consistent with signs of cooling in the housing market and economy in general. Mortgage approvals reached a nine-month low of 65,000 in June, mainly due to a reduction in new buyer enquiries. 125,000 new jobs were created in Q2 and unemployment fell to a rate of 4.4% (the lowest for forty years), so the continued slowdown was surprising. The failure of wages to keep up with living costs could be to blame and house price affordability was particularly pressured in areas of London and the South of England.

Estate agents’ stock remains at a thirty year low, which is likely to keep the market subdued but prices are still expected to rise by around 2% over 2017.

Higher house prices and the second home levy led to a rise in Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) which reached an all-time high in England and Wales of £12.8 billion since June 2016. The last peak recorded was in 2007 when it reached £10.6 billion. Of SDLT collected in the last twelve months, 50% was from London and the Outer Metropolitan regions; in 2007 the same area accounted for 25% of SDLT.

LSL / Acadata – August 2017
Average England and Wales house price = £297,398, down -0.2% from last month, up 2.1% in the year.

All regions in England and Wales recording annual house price growth, with the East of England showing the highest figure at 5.5%. August house transactions were up 5% on July.

London had the lowest regional house price growth, at 0.7% but over the year prices are still up by 0.7%. The most expensive boroughs are recording the largest house price drops.

The East, South West, East Midlands and North West all showed stronger growth than the cheaper regions of the North East, Yorkshire & Humber and Wales.

Of the 86 unitary authority areas in the England and Wales, 80% recorded prices rises over the year. Annual house price growth over 10% was recorded in Blaenau Gwent, Pembrokeshire, Poole, Southend-on-Sea and Rutland. The biggest annual fall was Carmarthenshire where prices were down -7.2% over the year.

HM Revenue & Customs – August 2017
The provisional number of UK residential property transaction completions (>£40k) for August 2017 was 103,490, representing a decrease of 0.5% between July-August 2017, and the seasonally adjusted figure is 6.6% higher than August 2016 and around the same as August 2015. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 6.6% higher than July 2017, which was 5.6% higher than August 2016.

Non-residential property transactions decreased by -2.1% between July-August 2017. This is 1.8% higher than July 2016.

Countrywide, the UK’s largest estate agency group in the UK, predicts that price growth will slow to 1.5% this year but increase to 2% in 2018 and 3% in 2019. The greatest rates in house price growth are expected in London and the South East.

Economic conditions will reduce price growth and there is an expectation that interest rates may begin to slowly increase from spring/summer 2018.

Brexit will continue to knock confidence that will affect the economic pace, particularly of the housing market. New building is not expected to gather pace over the next two years meaning lack of supply will continue to support price growth.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) reported that London prices had bounced back after the subdued start to the year, for both first-time buyers and home movers. Affordability remains a critical factor for the London market.

Typical mortgage borrowing for London first-time buyers was £268,100 (against a UK average of £137,700), up from £254,800 last quarter. The average first-time buyer income multiple in London was 4.02 compared to the UK average of 3.58. The average age of first-time borrowers was 31.

Typical mortgage borrowing for London home-movers was £353,500 (against a UK average of £178,200), up from £345,400 last quarter. The average home-mover income multiple in London was 4.01 compared to the UK average of 3.37. The average age of home mover borrowers was 37.

Remortgaging in July was at its highest level since January and over the last year at its highest level since 2009.

Buy to let lending was 7% higher in July than June, and 7% higher than in July 2016. There were 20,500 buy to let mortgages, 5% higher than June and 9% higher than July 2016.

Land Registry Price Paid Data – July 2017
Of the 93,474 residential and commercial sales lodged for registration in July, the most expensive residential property sale was a detached property in London Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, which sold for £9,360,000. There were 569 residential property sales valued at £1m or more in England and Wales, 329 of which were in London.

The cheapest residential sale was a terraced property in Bishops Auckland which sold for £18,750.

REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES

UK HPI Regional figures (all percentages are positive unless indicated otherwise)
July 2017 Average price (£)
GBP
Monthly change
%
Annual change
%
England £243,220 1.0% 5.4%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 2 – 2017) £128,650 3.1% 4.4%
Scotland £149,185 2.8% 4.8%
Wales £150,846 -0.3% 3.1%
East Midlands £184,676 1.1% 7.5%
East of England £289,948 0.8% 7.1%
London £488,729 0.3% 2.8%
North East £132,999 3.3% 4.1%
North West £157,427 1.4% 4.7%
South East £320,905 -0.4% 3.8%
South West £252,213 1.6% 7.0%
West Midlands Region £189,077 1.8% 6.9%
Yorkshire and The Humber £158,220 1.1% 4.5%

UK HPI Average monthly price by property type

Property type July 2017 July 2016 Difference
Detached £339,573 £321,284 5.7%
Semi-detached £210,893 £201,502 4.7%
Terraced £183,196 £175,506 4.4%
Flat or maisonette £206,984 £194,913 6.2%
All £226,185 £215,127 5.1%

 

Rightmove regional figures
August 2017 Average price (£)
GBP
Monthly change
%
Annual change
%
Greater London 629,270 1.9 1.6
South East 415,786 -1.7 2.7
South West 308,589 -1.3 2.7
East of England 348,977 0.0 4.2
West Midlands 220,157 0.8 5.8
East Midlands 208,254 0.4 6.8
Wales 187,407 1.1 3.9
North West 188,592 0.9 4.7
Yorkshire & Humberside 180,461 -0.8 2.2
North East 148,819 -0.8 1.0

 

FOCUS ON LONDON Average Price (£)

GBP

Monthly change

%

Annual change

%

Best and Worst (-) performers according to:
Rightmove August 2017
Hackney 686,663 1.5 8.9
City of Westminster 1,760,413 -5.5 8.1
Hammersmith and Fulham 915,264 -5.7 -6.4
Enfield 466,054 -4.1 -5.3
LCL Acadata July 2017
Camden 1,012,008 -0.2 11.4
Kensington and Chelsea 1,823,659 -3.4 11.2
Hackney 544,575 -0.5 -8.4
City of Westminster 1,347,536 -6.8 -9.8

RICS Survey Overview

The RICS Residential Market Survey for August 2017 reported that London residential property prices remain in negative territory, the weakest since 2008. In the South East of England, prices fell for the third successive month. The highest proportion of respondents to the survey sensed that the market is overpriced, relative to the rest of the UK.

East Anglia and the North of England were the only other regions to return negative price growth.

New sales instructions stabilised but there remains a shortage of stock.

Buyer enquiries remained flat during August and agreed sales were at -4%, largely due to London and the South East, while healthy sales growth was recorded in the South West and Scotland.

In the letting market, tenant demand was slightly stronger. Nationally, 61% of respondents felt that more landlords would exit the market in the coming year than enter it.

Overall, further rental growth was anticipated over the next twelve months and in the next five years rental growth was expected to outpace house price inflation by 1%.

Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

 

Rightmove.co.uk is the UK’s leading property website, displaying details of homes for sale or rent to the largest online audience. It is consistently ranked the number one property website in the UK (source: Experian Hitwise). It has around 90% of all properties for sale and at any time displays a stock of over one million properties to buy or rent, worth around £270 billion. The Rightmove.co.uk site attracts over 130 million visits from home movers each month with time on site averaging over one billion minutes per month (Rightmove data, 2017).

LSL Acad E&W HPI is derived from Land Registry (LR) house price data, seasonally and mix adjusted by property type. © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry. The prices are smoothed to show underlying trends. LSL Acad E&W HPI includes cash purchase prices and is the only index based upon the complete, factual house price data for England & Wales, as opposed to a sample.

UK HPI: Monthly house price inflation, calculated using data from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. This replaces the previous House Price Indices separately published by Office of National Statistics and Land Registry.

All figures within this article are correct at the time of going to press, and are reproduced in good faith. No responsibility will be taken for any decisions taken based on the information contained herein. Always seek professional advice.

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in October 2017.

PropertySurveying.co.uk