Welcome to the November 2018 Property Market fact file – a round-up of the latest property market news, collating survey data, statistics, trends and information about the property market. (All figures below are the most recently available data.)
UK House Price Index
Data source: Land Registry
UK average house price = £232,554, 0.0% in the month, up 3.5% in the year. Monthly index (where January 2015 = 100) is 122.0
Having fallen between Aug-Sept in 2017 by 0.4%, house prices this year are unchanged.
The West Midlands and East Midlands regions grew fastest, at 6.1% and 6.0%. London’s prices have fallen since March 2018 and are down -0.3% in the year to September 2018.
The first time buyer new build housing market is still being supported by the help-to-buy scheme.
UK average house price = £227,869, up 0.7% in the month, up 0.2% in the quarter, up 1.5% in the year.
The 1% fall in house price growth means October saw the lowest rate of growth since March 2013, although still within forecast figures.
The supply of new and existing properties for sale remains low and house prices are supported from high employment rates and low mortgages.
England and Wales average house asking price = £302,023, down -1.7% in the month and down -0.2% in the year.
New seller asking prices usually fall at this time of the year. However, this is the biggest drop in house asking prices since 2012, falling an average -£5,222 this month. London new seller asking prices fell by an average -£10,793, although these areas have seen prices increase by 40% since 2011, so not unexpected.
Sellers are hoping that realistic pricing will speed up sales, and the number property sales nationally is over 1% higher than a year ago.
UK average house price = £214,534, 0.0% change in the month and up 1.6% in the year.
Nationwide’s October index saw a slowdown of house price growth which left the housing market in line with expectations. The number of house sale transactions was 30% lower than the same period of 2007.
First time buyer and cash buyer housing transactions were substantially more buoyant than home movers or buy to let purchases involving a mortgage.
LSL / Acadata
Average England and Wales house price = £304,443, up 0.4% in the month, up 1.0% in the year.
Monthly house price growth rose for the first time since February, although annual growth dropped by 1.0%.
Regional growth was largely positive with the exception of the South East and North East, although annual house price growth remained well below the rate of inflation which stood at 2.2% in September.
The West Midlands and East Midlands house regions saw the strongest house price growth at 3.1% and 2.8% respectively. London’s house prices fell by 1.8%, a slower decrease than recent months. Annual house price growth in London has grown over the last year, and the average price in the capital is now £620,571, up £10,889 on last year.
The provisional number of UK residential property transaction completions (over £40,000) for September 2018 was 98,400, representing a decrease of 0.5% between Aug-Sept 2018, and the seasonally adjusted figure is 2.7% lower than September 2017. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was -18.2% than August 2018, and -11.9% lower than September 2017.
The number of non-residential property transactions increased by 6.7% between Aug-Sept 2018. This was -7.3% lower than September 2017.
Land Registry Price Paid Data
Of the 96,355 residential sales received for registration in September, the most expensive residential property sale was a terraced property in Kensington & Chelsea, London, which sold for £14,000,000. There were 450 residential property sales valued at £1m or more in England and Wales, 251 of which were in Greater London.
The cheapest residential sale was a terraced property in Hyndburn, Lancashire which sold for £18,000.
REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES
|UK HPI Regional figures (all percentages are positive unless indicated otherwise)|
|September 2018||Average price GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|Northern Ireland (Quarter 3 – 2018)||£135,060||2.3%||4.8%|
|East of England||£294,027||-0.1%||2.0%|
|West Midlands Region||£199,763||1.1%||6.1%|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||£162,009||-1.1%||2.6%|
UK HPI Average monthly price by property type
|Property type||September 2018 GBP||September 2017 GBP||Difference|
|Flat or maisonette||£203,374||£203,910||-0.3%|
Rightmove regional figures
|November 2018||Average price GBP||Monthly change %||Annual change %|
|East of England||350,978||-0.8||0.2|
|Yorkshire & Humberside||186,935||-2.4||1.7|
Nationwide regional figures
|Q3: 3 months to Sept 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Annual % change (this quarter)||Annual % change (previous quarter)|
|Yorks & Humberside||£160,263||5.8%||2.1%|
Focus on London – Best and Worst (-) annual performers according to:
|Rightmove September 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|Barking and Dagenham||316,247||-0.4%||2.4%|
|Hammersmith and Fulham||878,089||-0.3%||-5.7%|
|LCL Acadata October 2018||Average Price (£) GBP||Monthly change||Annual change|
|City of Westminster||1,439,917||-1.3%||-14.4%|
RICS Survey Overview
The RICS Residential Market Survey for October reported challenging conditions across the top of the housing market.
Regional variations saw a modest decline in house prices in some areas, while others remained fairly strong. The number of completed housing transactions was down -10%, the third consecutive monthly decline. New buyer demand was softening along with new instructions. Affordability and political uncertainty, as well as a lack of fresh housing stock, remain the most noteworthy problems.
Million pound plus properties were selling at reduced prices, some up to 10% lower than asking price.
There was a modest increase in tenant demand in the three months to October, while landlord instructions continued to fall. Consequent rents increases are likely in the next three months and rental growth is estimated to be 2% over the next year.
Rightmove.co.uk is the UK’s leading property website, displaying details of homes for sale or rent to the largest online audience. It is consistently ranked the number one property website in the UK (source: Experian Hitwise). It has around 90% of all properties for sale and at any time displays a stock of over one million properties to buy or rent, worth around £270 billion. The Rightmove.co.uk site attracts over 130 million visits from home movers each month with time on site averaging over one billion minutes per month (Rightmove data, 2017).
LSL Acad E&W HPI is derived from Land Registry (LR) house price data, seasonally and mix adjusted by property type. © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry. The prices are smoothed to show underlying trends. LSL Acad E&W HPI includes cash purchase prices and is the only index based upon the complete, factual house price data for England & Wales, as opposed to a sample.
UK HPI: Monthly house price inflation, calculated using data from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. This replaces the previous House Price Indices separately published by Office of National Statistics and Land Registry.
All figures within this article are correct at the time of going to press, and are reproduced in good faith. No responsibility will be taken for any decisions taken based on the information contained herein. Always seek professional advice.
Next Monthly Market Fact File due in December 2018.