Property Market Fact File – April 2014

Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for five years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England

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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.

This month the average house price in England ranges from 170k (Land Registry) to 254k (Office for National Statistics). Halifax HPI for March was not available at the time of publishing and so is not included.

ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to January 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 25th March 2014, show that house prices increased by 6.8% over the year, to an average of £254k. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 3.8%.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in January was £190k. Over the year, this is an increase of 7.6%. Existing owners paid an average of £291k in January, an increase of 6.5% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £238k in January, which is an increase of 2.5% from last January. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £255k, which is 7.1% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS

Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £170,000 as at the end of February 2014, according to the report published on 28th March 2014.
The Monthly change in February in England and Wales was a 0.7% rise.
The Annual change to end of February in England and Wales was a rise of 5.3%.
Source: Land Registry

Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 2nd April 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £180,264 during the month of March. This is an increase from February of 0.4%, and an annual rise of 9.5%.
Source: Nationwide

Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s March survey (published 17th March 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 9th February  to 8th March 2014 was £255,962, a rise of 1.6% on the previous month. House asking prices are 6.8% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata February figures, published 14th March 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £257,951 in the month. This is a 1.0% increase from January, but a 6.0% rise since last February.
Source: Acadata Ltd

Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the February 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in February is then £168,704: 0.6% up on January  and 6.3% up on February 2013.
In the months from September to December, the number of repossessions averaged 1,134 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,494 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to December 2013 of 24% – 1,278 to 966. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the East had 53% fewer repossession sales compared to last December, whereas Wales had 6% more – the only region to see an increase.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Nationwide’s UK House Prices Index report for Q1 2014.
In Quarter 1 of 2014, the average UK house price has been calculated (after seasonal adjustment) as £178,124 by the Nationwide. This is 2.6% higher than Q4 2013, and shows a 9.2% increase since the same quarter last year. For the tenth successive quarter, the most expensive region in the UK to buy a property is, not surprisingly, London, and the least expensive region is once again Northern Ireland.
Over the quarter, London’s average price rose by 5.3% to £362,699, whereas in Yorkshire & Humberside, there was no significant change at £139,775. Over the past year, London’s prices have risen by 18.2%, whereas Wales’ prices rose by 5.2% to an average of £139,911.
House prices in Northern Ireland are now 5.4% up on last year, and 2.2% up on last quarter, standing at an average of £114,495. The City of Belfast still has the highest prices – at £162,798, the annual rise is 7%.
London had an increase in house prices of 18.2% on last year, and a 5.3% increase on last quarter. The average price is £362,699. Westminster is still the most expensive borough, with the average price  (£855,078) almost four times the average price in the cheapest borough, Barking & Dagenham (£215,110).
House prices in England have risen 2.9% over the quarter, and 10.7% over the year. The average price in England is £210,066. The North is still the cheapest place in England to buy a property, where the average price is £119,702.
Wales’ quarterly change was a rise of 1.1%, and the annual rise was 5.2%. The average price in Wales is now £139,911, with Cardiff remaining the most expensive area – the average house price in Cardiff is £213,611.
Scotland’s house prices rose 2.3% on last quarter, and 7.6% from last year, to an  average price of £138,386. Aberdeen City is still the most expensive place to buy a house in Scotland – the average price there is £246,532.
On an annual basis, looking at towns and cities within England, Manchester once again performed best, with house prices increasing by 18% since last year. The average price of a house in Manchester is now £211,748.
The worst performance in England was Sunderland, where prices rose by only 1% in the year. House prices here average £139,772.
Source: Nationwide

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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY ACROSS ENGLAND AND WALES

Greater London and the South East consistently performing better than other regions.

ONS House Price Index regional figures.
The average house price in England in January 2014 was £264k, £166k in Wales, £132k in Northern Ireland and £183k in Scotland.
Over the year to January 2014, England’s rise was 7.1% and Wales’ by 6.9%. Northern Ireland’s also rose by 2.7% and Scotland’s rose by 1.4%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 13.2% over the year, while the  South East and the West Midlands regions rose by 7.1% and 5.3% respectively. The smallest rise was 0.6% in the North East.
Source: ONS

Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s March survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 9th February  to 8th March 2014 as £255,962.
The largest monthly increase was in the West Midlands, where asking prices rose by 3.9% over the period from £187,932 to £195,204. The annual change there was a rise of 5.0%.
The only significant monthly decrease was in the East Midlands where average prices fell by 0.2%, from £172,468 to £172,116. The annual change there was a rise of 5.2%.
Average prices in the North West dropped from £163,952 to £163,908 over the month, which is statistically insignificant. The annual change there was a rise of 1.8%.
The largest annual rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 11.3% over the year from £496,298 to an average of £552,530. The monthly increase was 2.1%.
The only annual fall was in the North, where the average price fell by 0.3% from £146,277 to £145,861. The monthly increase here was 2.5%.
Source: Rightmove

Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s February survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in Wales, which saw an increase over the month of 1.6%, bringing the average house price in the region to £119,118. This is 1.7% higher than this time last year.
The largest monthly decrease in price was in the North East, where the average price fell 1.4% to £97,332, which is 1.3% lower than a year ago – the only annual fall. The only other region to see a fall over the month was the East Midlands, where prices fell by 0.1% in the month, but increased by 4.5% over the year, to £127,343.
The largest annual rise was once again in London, where prices rose by 13.8% over the year to £414,356, but only 0.7% over the month.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that by January 2014, all of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices both monthly and annually.
The largest rise in the month was Greater London – up 1.3% to an average of £477,157.  The annual rise here was 10.6%, which is the largest of all the annual rises.
Yorkshire & Humberside saw the smallest monthly rise – a 0.2% increase to £160,253. However, this is 2.9% higher than last year.
The North and the North West saw the smallest annual rise in average house prices – up 2.5% to £145,097 and £157,405 respectively.
Source: Acadata

Nationwide sub-regional analysis of average house prices over the last 10 years.
Analysing the price rises over Great Britain by region over the last ten years shows some major differences. Compared to 10 years ago, the average house price in Aberdeen City has risen by 107% to £246,532. This is the highest rise outside London, where Westminster’s average price has risen by 118% over the decade to £855,078 and Islington’s by 111% to £643,784.
However, in the West of Northern Ireland,  the average price of £103,774 is only 4% higher than 10 years ago. On the mainland, Nottingham fared worst, with house prices averaging £152,526 -  only 3% higher than a decade ago.
The London Borough which saw the smallest rise is Barking & Dagenham, where average prices rose by 25% over the past ten years to £215,110.
Source: Nationwide

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s February survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Hartlepool, where the average price is up by 6.9% to £76,117. This is 1.8% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 2.9% to an average of £67,738. However, this is 0.7% higher than last year.
Greater London saw the largest annual price rise – 13.8% up on last month to an average of £414,356. However, the monthly rise there was only 0.7%
The largest annual fall was in Blaenau Gwent, where prices fell by 15.1% to £63,443. This is 1.1% lower than January.
Four counties / authorities saw no price movement in the month – Blackburn with Darwen, North East Lincolnshire, Somerset and Swindon.
Source: Land Registry

Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in January 2014 was Torfaen, where average prices rose by 3.0% to £137,861. The annual change there was a rise of 5.6%.
Next is Bridgend, where prices rose by 2.8% in the month (4.4% annual rise) to an average of £146,863.
Conwy saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 2.5% to £152,944. The annual change was a fall of 5.3% which was the largest decrease after Rutland.
Over the past year, Poole saw the largest increase – up 16.4% to £315,353.
The largest annual decrease was in Rutland, where prices fell by 6.3% to £270,050. However, there was a rise of 2.6% over the month.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s February survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase was in Wolverhampton, where the average price was up by 2.7% to £102,378. This is 4.6% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was shared by Salford and Coventry, where prices fell by 0.9% to an average of £85,731 and £110,029 respectively. These are – respectively – unchanged and 4.3% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise is once again in Oldham, where prices rose by 8.8% to an average of £82,193. This is 0.1% higher than last month.
The largest annual fall was once again in Knowsley -  average prices fell by 5.7% over the year to £97,886. However, this is 1.5% higher than last year.
Source: Land Registry

Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period from 9th February  to 8th March 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in Haringey, where they rose by 9.5% to an average of £597,634. The annual rise was 0.9%.
The largest decrease in asking prices was in Kensington & Chelsea, where they fell by 2.4% in the month to £2,118,956. They fell by 2.8% over the year – the largest annual decrease.
Annually, the largest increase was in Tower Hamlets, where prices rose by 33.2% over the year, to an average of £560,581. The monthly increase here was 2.7%.
Source: Rightmove

Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to January 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 1.3%. Over the year, the change is a 10.9% rise.
Southwark had the largest monthly rise: up 5.0% to £499,118. The annual rise here was 19.0%.
At the other end of the scale, Richmond-upon-Thames saw the greatest fall in prices in the month: down 1.3% to £651,182. However, the annual change was a rise of 6.5%.
Barnet was the only borough to experience no change this month.
Comparing January 2013 to January 2014, (excluding City of London) Waltham Forest saw the greatest increase: up 23.0% to £310,868, although the monthly change here was a rise of 1.8%.
The only borough to see a decrease in prices over the year was once again the City of Westminster, where prices fell by 6.9% to £1,149,668. This was a drop over the month of 0.4%.
The most expensive London borough to buy property is still Kensington and Chelsea, where the average price is £1,749,859 – 2.0% higher than last month and 17.1% higher that last year.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £196,500, although this is 0.7% higher than December, and 6.1% higher than last year.
Source: Acadata

Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s February survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is the City of Westminster -  the borough saw a rise of 2.4% in the month. The average price is now £890,272, which is 15.8% higher than last year.
There was only one decrease in price either monthly or annually – Redbridge saw a fall of 0.4% in the month to £313,063, although this is 7.7% higher than last February.
The biggest annual rise was in Hackney, where prices rose by 21.5% to £528,737, which is 0.3% higher than last month.
Harrow and Newham both saw annual falls of 4.9% over the year, to £320,778 and £239,942 respectively. These boroughs saw monthly rises of 1.0% and 0.7% respectively.
Only Barnet saw no change over the month.
Source: Land Registry

RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for February 2014 (published 13th March 2014) says that “Price momentum remains strong across all UK regions.” and “Easier credit conditions are supporting this strengthening in activity”..
The South East saw the largest price rises over the month, and Wales saw the smallest.
The West Midlands had the highest level of agreed sales in February, with every area seeing a rise except the South East.
The North West had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month, followed closely by the North. All regions saw a rise in this indicator, but the South West’s was the smallest.
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in the North. The South West and  London saw the largest decreases in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising, with mixed results between the indices published. Detached properties are consistently higher than the average.

Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 8th March 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 6.8%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are higher than last year.

  • Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 11.4% to £227,970.
  • Terraced properties’ prices rose by 8.3% to £203,064.
  • Detached property asking prices rose by 5.5% to £373,514.
  • Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 6.2% to £215,004.

Source: Rightmove

Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s February average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 5.3% in the year to end February 2014. The average price is now £170,000

  • Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 7.6% to £163,168
  • Terraced properties rose by 3.9% to £127,738
  • Detached properties rose by 5.1% to £267,557
  • Semi-detached properties rose by 5.3% to £160,943.

Source: Land Registry

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MORTGAGE FIGURES

New Mortgages granted – January Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 48,600 loans were made in January for house purchase, worth £8.0 billion. This is lower than December in number by 16.0% and lower in value by 14.0%. However, these figures are up 30.3% and 42.9% (respectively) than last January’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 21,800, valued at £3.1 billion, which is down by 18.4% in number and 16.2% in value on last month. However, this is 38.0% higher in number and 55.0% higher in value, compared to last January’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £4.9 billion, and numbered 26,800. These figures are 14.9% lower than December’s in terms of number, and down 12.5% in value.  However, they are up 24.7% in number and 36.1% in value on last January.
The number and value of remortgage loans rose in the month – 28,000 loans worth £4.2 billion were made in January. These figures are 10.2% higher than last month’s in terms of volume and 10.5% higher in value. This was a rise of 15.7% in number, and a rise of 31.3% in value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

New Mortgages granted – February Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that February’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £15.2 billion. This is lower by 6% on January’s figure, but a rise of 43% on last February’s £10.6 billion.
CML chief economist Bob Pannell said “First-time buyers have benefitted most from the government’s Help to Buy initiatives, with the more recent mortgage guarantee scheme now starting to push typical loan-to-value levels higher.”.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during January 2014, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.1 billion (15,700 loans). This is higher than December by 8.3% in number and by 10.5% in value.
Just under half of the buy-to-let loans were for remortgage: 7,500 loans worth £1.1 billion – an increase of 6.2% in number, and of 7.1% in value on the previous month.
Loans for house purchase totalled 8,100 loans worth £900 million, a rise of 11.3% in number and of 7.1% in value on December 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.2m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £114,416 in February 2014.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.280 trillion at the end of February 2014. This is up from the previous February’s £1,268 billion.
Source: The Money Charity

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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES

Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s February Report, in December 2013, 75,182 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 9,855 in London. This represents a rise of 33% in England & Wales, and of 30% in London since last December’s figures, (56,697 and 7,601 respectively).
Compared to last December, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 437 to 612 – a rise of 40%, and in England & Wales it increased from 624 to 898 – a rise of 44%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 28.3% in England & Wales (from 41,800 last December to 53,610 this December), and it rose by 7.5% in London (from 2,837 to 3,050).
Source: Land Registry

Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from September to December 2013 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 75,318. This is up 29.4% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 58,195 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry

Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
Hometrack compile sample data monthly from thousands of Estate Agents in all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales. The figures are weighted according to postcode, but not seasonally adjusted.
March’s survey (published 31st March 2014) shows that house prices increased by 0.6% in the month.
The average amount of time that a house is on the market has slipped slightly to 7.9 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 2.7 weeks in London to 11.7 weeks in the North West.
On average, 96.2% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 99.3% in Greater London, down to 93.9% in Wales.
50% of postcode districts reported a price increase in March, slightly lower than February’s 51% but much higher than January’s 30%. Only 0.2% had a price decrease over the month, down from February’s 0.4% and much lower than January’s 5%.
Source: Hometrack

NHBC Figures for new homes
NHBC figures released 28th February for new homes registered for the rolling quarter December 2013 to February 2014.
29,557 new homes have been registered in this period, compared to 26,004 in the same period last year – a 14% rise.
The figures are 21,336 in the private sector, and  8,221 public sector:  an increase of 13% and 14% respectively on the same period last year.
Regional analysis shows that  Wales saw a fall in registrations in this three month period of 36% (from 994 to 638). The largest increase was Scotland, where registrations increased by 38% from 1,716 to 2,368, (although The Isle of Man figure rose from 24 to 75, a rise of 312%!).
Within England, the North West saw the greatest rise in registrations – up 43% to 2,282 in this period compared to 1,604 in the same period a year ago.
Source: NHBC

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in May 2014.

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