January 2018 Property Market fact file

A round up of the latest property market news, collating survey data, statistics, trends and information about the property market. (All figures below are the most recently available data.)

UK House Price Index
Data source: Land Registry
UK average house price = £226,071,  up 0.1% in the month, up 5.1% in the year.
Monthly index (where January 2015 = 100) is 118.6

The West Midlands topped the annual house price growth table, at 7.2% in November. Annual growth in London has remained below the UK average for twelve consecutive months.

Halifax
UK average house price = £225,021, down -0.6% in the month, up 1.3% in the quarter, up 2.7% in the year.

House price increases continue to gradually slow down, and December showed the first monthly decline in six months. This is a similar pattern to a year ago. Real wage growth and economic uncertainty continue to affect the housing market, as well as a national shortage of property for sale. Expectations for 2018 are low and up to a maximum of 3% house price growth.

New instructions to sell have declined for the last 22 consecutive months, and buyer enquiries have fallen for the last eight months.  This is the worst record for nearly eight years.

Rightmove
England and Wales average house asking price = £297,587 up 0.7% in the month and up 1.1% in the year.

Rightmove reports a busy start to the year, with visits to the site up 9% on the same period last year, although the number of properties coming onto the market and monthly average monthly house price rise are similar to last year.

With this seemingly strong demand, sellers with properties that are sensibly priced or suitable for first time buyers are likely to be the most successful. First time buyers are advised to buy soon to avoid the likely price hikes of a strong market that will absorb any stamp duty savings.

Nationwide
UK average house price = £211,156 up 0.6% in the month, up 2.6% in the year.

House price rises over 2017 were modest compared to the 4.5% growth in 2016. London house prices were down -0.5% in the year and was the weakest performing region at -0.5% annual growth; the West Midlands was the strongest at 5.2% annual house price growth. Affordability remained the most significant factor.

Wage growth and house price growth are predicted to be similar at 3-4% annually in the long term. Policy changes affecting buy to let continued to impact the property investment market. London’s performance was its weakest since 2004.

An analysis of deposit savers by region emphasised the lack of affordability in London and the South East of England. An average 20% deposit in London is now over £80,000 compared to £30,000 ten years ago. In most regions, a typical buyer would take eight years to save for a deposit, compared to nine years in the South East and ten years in London.

Annual growth for 2018 and 2019 is predicted to remain modest, at 1%-1.5%.

LSL / Acadata
Average England and Wales house price = £300,846, 0.0% from last month, up 0.2% in the year.

House price growth excluding London and the South East was 3% in 2017. The top end of the London market continues to suffer the greatest, with annual prices in the City of Westminster down -19.5%, Hammersmith & Fulham – 13.6% and Wandsworth -12.1%. At 9.3%, Kensington & Chelsea is the only top seven London borough without double digit falls over the year.

Annual house price increases in the South West and North West are strong at 5.3% and 3.9% respectively. City of Bristol house prices increased by 8.9% annually, with a marked increase in the average value of terraced properties, up from £290,000 in 2016 to £320,000 in November 2017.

Figures show buy to let investors buying fewer properties which has resulted in reduced competition.

First time buyers are likely to benefit from the long-term effects of more new houses coming onto the market, but recent suggestions that inheritance might significantly benefit the group is, in reality, unlikely to make much difference.

HM Revenue & Customs
The provisional number of UK residential property transaction completions (>£40k) for October 2017 was 104,200, representing an increase of 0.6% between Oct-Nov 2017, and the seasonally adjusted figure is 7.1% higher than November 2016. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 0.4% higher than October 2017, and 6.1% higher than November 2016.

The number of non-residential property transactions increased by 5.2% between Oct-Nov 2017. This is 5.0% higher than November 2016.

Countrywide, the UK’s largest estate agency group in the UK, has published its Monthly Lettings Index for January 2018. Rental growth is reported to have risen by a third, to 2.4% in 2017.

Sales of homes to landlords decreased to a nine year low of 12.5% and the number of homes on the rental market fell by 4% in 2017.

London, went from having the slowest rate of rental growth in England in 2016 (0.8%) to the fastest in 2017 (3.2%). However, there were 21% fewer homes to rent in London, the biggest decline of any region.

Land Registry Price Paid Data
Of the 106,412 residential sales received for registration in November, the most expensive residential property sale was a semi-detached property in the London Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, which sold for £13m. There were 489 residential property sales valued at £1m or more in England and Wales, 293 of which were in Greater London. Four properties in Greater Manchester and one in Cardiff also sold for £1m.

The cheapest residential sale was a terraced property in Burnley, Lancashire which sold for £15,000.

REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES

UK HPI Regional figures (all percentages are positive unless indicated otherwise)
January 2018 Average price (£) GBP Monthly change % Annual change %
England £243,339 0.1% 5.3%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 3 – 2017) £132,169 3.0% 6.0%
Scotland £145,992 1.1% 3.6%
Wales £152,855 -0.7% 4.5%
East Midlands £185,047 0.2% 6.4%
East of England £289,731 -0.2% 6.0%
London £481,915 -0.9% 2.3%
North East £127,737 -1.0% 2.3%
North West £159,066 1.4% 6.2%
South East £325,270 0.3% 5.7%
South West £251,923 -0.5% 6.2%
West Midlands Region £192,119 1.3% 7.2%

UK HPI Average monthly price by property type

Property type November 2017 November 2016 Difference
Detached £340,886 £326,020 4.6%
Semi-detached £213,022 £201,403 5.8%
Terraced £182,738 £173,104 5.6%
Flat or maisonette £203,651 £195,545 4.1%
All £226,071 £215,113 5.1%

Rightmove regional figures

December 2017 Average price (£) GBP Monthly change % Annual change %
Greater London 600,926 -1.4 -3.5
South East 397,252 1.2 1.2
South West 294,046 1.6 4.0
East of England 342,854 -0.4 2.3
West Midlands 214,163 1.4 5.8
East Midlands 213,551 0.8 4.2
North West 187,134 2.4 5.5
Wales 180,472 -0.2 5.7
Yorkshire & Humberside 179,977 0.8 4.5
North East 141,155 -2.7 0.1

Focus on London – Best and Worst (-) annual performers according to:

Rightmove January 2018 Average Price (£) GBP Monthly change % Annual change %
TfL Zone 4 473,576 -0.2 0.8
TfL Zone 1 1,295,435 3.7 0.1
TfL Zone 2 704,591 -3.8 -6.4
TfL Zone 3 564,050 -3.3 -7.7
LCL Acadata January 2018 Average Price (£) GBP Monthly change % Annual change %
Merton 636,401 2.1 9.9
Hounslow 503,419 7.2 8.3
City of Westminster 1,300,309 -2.8 -19.4
Southwark 559,529 -3.6 -21.1

RICS Survey Overview
The RICS Residential Market Survey for December 2017 reported a slip in agreed sales but a more encouraging outlook for house prices and sales.

A lack of momentum continued with activity remaining fairly static.

London remains the area with the worst performing price balance, although it has improved on figures from last April. Over the next year, most areas are expected to increase in house price value – with the exception of London, where they are expected to fall still further.

So far, 86% of agents contributing to the survey reported that they had seen no response from first time buyers after Stamp Duty changes. The mood was subdued nationally, with 66% of respondents believing the changes would have no consequence and just 12% anticipating higher activity.

Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Rightmove.co.uk is the UK’s leading property website, displaying details of homes for sale or rent to the largest online audience. It is consistently ranked the number one property website in the UK (source: Experian Hitwise). It has around 90% of all properties for sale and at any time displays a stock of over one million properties to buy or rent, worth around £270 billion. The Rightmove.co.uk site attracts over 130 million visits from home movers each month with time on site averaging over one billion minutes per month (Rightmove data, 2017).

LSL Acad E&W HPI is derived from Land Registry (LR) house price data, seasonally and mix adjusted by property type. © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry. The prices are smoothed to show underlying trends. LSL Acad E&W HPI includes cash purchase prices and is the only index based upon the complete, factual house price data for England & Wales, as opposed to a sample.

UK HPI: Monthly house price inflation, calculated using data from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. This replaces the previous House Price Indices separately published by Office of National Statistics and Land Registry.

All figures within this article are correct at the time of going to press, and are reproduced in good faith. No responsibility will be taken for any decisions taken based on the information contained herein. Always seek professional advice.

Next Monthly Market Fact File due in February 2018.

[Back to January 2018 Newsletter]

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